{"id":359007,"date":"2026-02-24T23:07:16","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T23:07:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/?p=359007"},"modified":"2026-02-24T23:07:16","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T23:07:16","slug":"vrs-eu-race-iem-cologne-2026-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/vrs-eu-race-iem-cologne-2026-update","title":{"rendered":"VRS race for IEM Cologne Major 2026: 50+ teams still in contention"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>VRS analyst <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MischiefCS2\/status\/2026266310842155171?s=20\">Finn (@MischiefCS2)<\/a> has released an updated simulation of the European race for IEM Cologne Major 2026 invites, introducing three changes to the projected qualifiers. Around 50\u201355 teams still hold a mathematical chance of making the Major, with an Americas update expected soon.<\/p>\n<h3>Who\u2019s currently in: favorites remain stable<\/h3>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/HB686jMWsAAqNWa?format=png&amp;name=large\" alt=\"Image\"><\/p>\n<p>At the top of the table, little has changed. Team Vitality, PARIVISION, Falcons, MOUZ, Spirit, Aurora, and NAVI all hold a 99% probability of qualifying for the Major. G2 (96.7%) and Astralis (93.7%) also appear to be in a very strong position.<\/p>\n<p>Behind them sits a tightly packed group of contenders:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"article-list-pink\">\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">GamerLegion \u2014 88%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">FUT \u2014 87.3%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">FaZe \u2014 84.8%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">Monte \u2014 71.3%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">Gentle Mates \u2014 70%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">BetBoom \u2014 64.7%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">3DMAX \u2014 52.1%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">HOTU \u2014 48.7%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>3DMAX deserve particular attention after significantly improving their outlook by attending open LAN events, reducing their LAN deficit in the VRS system. HOTU also gained ground thanks to a strong Roman Imperium run.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"article__content grid-cards-col xl-w-100\">\n    <h3>read more<\/h3>\n    <div class=\"grid-1 gap-12 mb-12 load-parent xl-w-100\">\n        <div class=\"type3 y-red-dif hover-card card-more\">\n        <a class=\"type3__left up-to-card hover-el\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/mp7-update-cs2-skins-price-surge-200-percent\">\n        <div class=\"bg-bottom-abs-short\"> <\/div>\n        <picture class=\"picture object-fit-cover\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"picture__img object-fit-cover\" src=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Site_1738x800.png.webp\" alt=\"MP7 Update Sparks Market Surge: Skins Jump Up to 200+%\">\n        <\/picture>\n    <\/a>\n        <div class=\"type3__right main-structure p-20\">\n        <div class=\"type3__top\">\n            <a class=\"type3__title title-24 hover-el\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/mp7-update-cs2-skins-price-surge-200-percent\">MP7 Update Sparks Market Surge: Skins Jump Up to 200+%<\/a>\n            <a class=\"go-arrow hover-el\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/mp7-update-cs2-skins-price-surge-200-percent\">\n                <div class=\"go-arrow__left go-arrow__part\">\n                    <svg class=\"icon\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\">\n                        <use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/wp-content\/themes\/skinclub-v3\/assets\/images\/sprites\/main.stack.svg?v=1776287457#image-blue-arrow\"><\/use>\n                    <\/svg>\n                <\/div>\n                <div class=\"go-arrow__center go-arrow__part\">\n                    <svg class=\"icon\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\">\n                        <use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/wp-content\/themes\/skinclub-v3\/assets\/images\/sprites\/main.stack.svg?v=1776287457#image-blue-arrow\"><\/use>\n                    <\/svg>\n                <\/div>\n                <div class=\"go-arrow__right go-arrow__part\">\n                    <svg class=\"icon\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\">\n                        <use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/wp-content\/themes\/skinclub-v3\/assets\/images\/sprites\/main.stack.svg?v=1776287457#image-blue-arrow\"><\/use>\n                    <\/svg>\n                <\/div>\n            <\/a><\/div>\n        <div class=\"type3__bottom blue-labels mt-auto\">\n            <div class=\"blue-label disabled\">Feb 24<\/div>\n            <a class=\"blue-label\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\">News<\/a>        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3>On the outside looking in: who risks missing the Major<\/h3>\n<p>Among the teams currently outside the projected qualification spots:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"article-list-pink\">\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">HEROIC \u2014 47%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">Ninjas in Pyjamas \u2014 37.4%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">B8 \u2014 33.2%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">Liquid \u2014 27.4%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">BIG \u2014 26.2%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">BC.Game \u2014 17.6%<\/li>\n<li class=\"article-list-pink__item\">fnatic \u2014 5.4%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Liquid, according to Finn, have around a 27% chance of qualifying \u2014 and their bet on Rotterdam appears to be a true \u201cdice roll.\u201d B8 and BIG are significantly behind in LAN wins, which remain crucial for accumulating VRS points.<\/p>\n<h3>Community reaction: debate over transparency and chances<\/h3>\n<p>The post generated strong reactions. A 100 Thieves representative jokingly responded to their exclusion from the projected list, while Finn clarified that not all teams with a chance were included in the infographic due to space limitations.<\/p>\n<p>When asked about the mathematical side of the model, the analyst explained that he creates \u201cmatch scaffolding\u201d for all future matches leading up to the Major, predicts outcomes based on odds generated by a Glicko-based model, and then logs which teams qualify in each simulation. \u201cI\u2019m a data junkie, but I can\u2019t write explanations for the life of me,\u201d Finn admitted, highlighting the complexity of the VRS system.<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"article__content grid-cards-col xl-w-100\">\n    <h3>read more<\/h3>\n    <div class=\"grid-1 gap-12 mb-12 load-parent xl-w-100\">\n        <div class=\"type3 y-red-dif hover-card card-more\">\n        <a class=\"type3__left up-to-card hover-el\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/imperial-sign-levi-rebuild-after-try-exit\">\n        <div class=\"bg-bottom-abs-short\"> <\/div>\n        <picture class=\"picture object-fit-cover\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"picture__img object-fit-cover\" src=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/PHOTO-02-32.webp\" alt=\"Imperial Esports sign levi: A bet on youth after try\u2019s departure\">\n        <\/picture>\n    <\/a>\n        <div class=\"type3__right main-structure p-20\">\n        <div class=\"type3__top\">\n            <a class=\"type3__title title-24 hover-el\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/imperial-sign-levi-rebuild-after-try-exit\">Imperial Esports sign levi: A bet on youth after try\u2019s departure<\/a>\n            <a class=\"go-arrow hover-el\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/imperial-sign-levi-rebuild-after-try-exit\">\n                <div class=\"go-arrow__left go-arrow__part\">\n                    <svg class=\"icon\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\">\n                        <use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/wp-content\/themes\/skinclub-v3\/assets\/images\/sprites\/main.stack.svg?v=1776287457#image-blue-arrow\"><\/use>\n                    <\/svg>\n                <\/div>\n                <div class=\"go-arrow__center go-arrow__part\">\n                    <svg class=\"icon\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\">\n                        <use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/wp-content\/themes\/skinclub-v3\/assets\/images\/sprites\/main.stack.svg?v=1776287457#image-blue-arrow\"><\/use>\n                    <\/svg>\n                <\/div>\n                <div class=\"go-arrow__right go-arrow__part\">\n                    <svg class=\"icon\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\">\n                        <use xlink:href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/wp-content\/themes\/skinclub-v3\/assets\/images\/sprites\/main.stack.svg?v=1776287457#image-blue-arrow\"><\/use>\n                    <\/svg>\n                <\/div>\n            <\/a><\/div>\n        <div class=\"type3__bottom blue-labels mt-auto\">\n            <div class=\"blue-label disabled\">Feb 24<\/div>\n            <a class=\"blue-label\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\">News<\/a>        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3>What\u2019s next?<\/h3>\n<p>The European race is far from over. Around 50\u201355 teams still hold a mathematical path to qualification, even if they are not shown in the infographic. LAN performances remain the decisive factor, forming the backbone of VRS points ahead of the cutoff. The Americas update is expected soon, which could further reshape the overall qualification picture. The race for the IEM Cologne Major 2026 is entering its decisive phase \u2014 and every tournament now carries significant weight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>VRS analyst Finn (@MischiefCS2) has released an updated simulation of the European race for IEM Cologne Major 2026 invites, introducing three changes to the projected qualifiers. Around 50\u201355 teams still hold a mathematical chance of making the Major, with an Americas update expected soon. Who\u2019s currently in: favorites remain stable At the top of the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":357264,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-359007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Updated VRS EU Major Race for IEM Cologne 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Finn updates VRS EU Major simulation: three changes, 50+ teams still in contention for IEM Cologne 2026 invites.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/vrs-eu-race-iem-cologne-2026-update\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Updated VRS EU Major Race for IEM Cologne 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Finn updates VRS EU Major simulation: three changes, 50+ teams still in contention for IEM Cologne 2026 invites.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/vrs-eu-race-iem-cologne-2026-update\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"CS2 &amp; 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