{"id":416679,"date":"2026-08-16T09:10:34","date_gmt":"2026-08-16T09:10:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/?p=416679"},"modified":"2026-08-16T09:10:34","modified_gmt":"2026-08-16T09:10:34","slug":"gr1ks-big-1v3-clutch-had-a-274-shot-sequence-chance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/gr1ks-big-1v3-clutch-had-a-274-shot-sequence-chance","title":{"rendered":"gr1ks\u2019 BIG 1v3 Clutch Had a 2.74% Shot Sequence Chance"},"content":{"rendered":"<?xml encoding=\"UTF-8\"><p>BIG player Gleb &ldquo;gr1ks&rdquo; Gazin produced an extraordinary 1v3 clutch against Spirit at Esports World Cup 2026. However, a new analysis suggests that repeating the full sequence of shots had only a 2.74% probability.<\/p><p>The clutch included two consecutive no-scope shots and an airborne AK shot. Therefore, the sequence quickly became one of the most unusual moments in the match.<\/p><h2>CT Side Won Only 11% of Similar Rounds<\/h2><p>Data analyst eugenio8a8 examined how unlikely the situation was. He used the DemoQuery desktop app to identify the round conditions.<\/p><p>The round was a CT full buy against a T-side semi-buy. It was also a 1v3 situation before the bomb plant.<\/p><div class=\"article__content grid-cards-col xl-w-100\">\n    <p class=\"article-h3\">read more<\/p>\n    <div class=\"grid-1 gap-12 mb-12 load-parent xl-w-100\">\n        <article class=\"club-hover-connect-parent\">\n    <div class=\"club-top-line\"><\/div>\n    <div class=\"club-row club-gutter-none\">\n                    <div class=\"club-col-4 club-col-6-xs\">\n                <figure class=\"picture-16x9 picture-with-gradient\">\n                    <a class=\"club-hover-connect club-hover-connect-img\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/spirit-advanced-to-the-playoffs-of-esports-world-cup-2026\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n                        <img src=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/55155755242_36171a2319_k.jpg.webp\" alt=\"Spirit advanced to the playoffs of Esports World Cup 2026\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\">\n                    <\/a>\n                <\/figure>\n            <\/div>\n        \n        <div class=\"club-col-8 club-col-6-xs club-box-bg--gradient\">\n            <div class=\"club-box-def club-full-height\">\n                <div class=\"club-dynamic-dotted-wrap club-full-height\">\n                    <h3 class=\"club-h4-title\">\n                        <a class=\"club-link-primary club-hover-connect club-dynamic-dotted__text\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/spirit-advanced-to-the-playoffs-of-esports-world-cup-2026\">\n                            Spirit advanced to the playoffs of Esports World Cup 2026                        <\/a>\n                    <\/h3>\n                <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"club-bottom-line\"><\/div>\n<\/article>    <\/div>\n<\/div><p>Afterward, eugenio8a8 searched a large database of professional demos for matching rounds. He found 27 comparable rounds featuring a T-side semi-buy versus a CT full buy in a pre-plant 1v3.<\/p><p>The CT player won only 11% of those rounds. As a result, gr1ks&rsquo; clutch was already an uncommon outcome before the individual shots were considered.<\/p><div class=\"article__media y-red-dif-4\"><iframe src=\"https:\/\/clips.twitch.tv\/embed?clip=ApatheticSuspiciousDogCharlietheUnicorn-f-3zpSUPQ7BoVSup&amp;parent=community.skin.club\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/div><h2>The 2.74% Shot Sequence<\/h2><p>eugenio8a8 also calculated the probability of gr1ks repeating every shot in the clutch. The first shot had a 93.14% probability, while the second shot had a 54.12% probability.<\/p><p>The final airborne AK shot had a 5.43% probability. When these three probabilities were multiplied, the complete sequence reached approximately 2.74%.<\/p><blockquote class=\"custom-bq\"><div class=\"custom-bq-q\"><p>How unlikely was this insane 1v3 from gr1ks of BIG versus Spirit? From 27 comparable pro rounds, the CT won only 11% of the time. I then recreated every shot: 93.14% &rarr; 54.12% &rarr; 5.43%. Full sequence probability: just 2.74%.<\/p><\/div><\/blockquote><div class=\"twitter-wrapper article__media y-red-dif-4\"><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-media-max-width=\"2000\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">How unlikely was this insane 1v3 from <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/gr1ks24?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@gr1ks24<\/a> of <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BIGCLANgg?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@BIGCLANgg<\/a> versus <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Team__Spirit?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Team__Spirit<\/a> ?<\/p>\n<p>From 27 comparable pro rounds, the CT won only 11% of the time.<\/p>\n<p>I then recreated every shot: 93.14% &rarr; 54.12% &rarr; 5.43%.<\/p>\n<p>Full sequence probability: just 2.74% <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Iyw0SM2D8J\">https:\/\/t.co\/Iyw0SM2D8J<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/w67SOow7E6\">pic.twitter.com\/w67SOow7E6<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; eugenio8a8 (@eugenio8a8) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/eugenio8a8\/status\/2088879142758478237?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 16, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote><\/div><div class=\"article__content grid-cards-col xl-w-100\">\n    <p class=\"article-h3\">read more<\/p>\n    <div class=\"grid-1 gap-12 mb-12 load-parent xl-w-100\">\n        <article class=\"club-hover-connect-parent\">\n    <div class=\"club-top-line\"><\/div>\n    <div class=\"club-row club-gutter-none\">\n                    <div class=\"club-col-4 club-col-6-xs\">\n                <figure class=\"picture-16x9 picture-with-gradient\">\n                    <a class=\"club-hover-connect club-hover-connect-img\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/aurora-advanced-to-the-playoffs-of-esports-world-cup-2026\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n                        <img src=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/55172450930_97cd3e96e1_k.jpg.webp\" alt=\"Aurora advanced to the playoffs of Esports World Cup 2026\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\">\n                    <\/a>\n                <\/figure>\n            <\/div>\n        \n        <div class=\"club-col-8 club-col-6-xs club-box-bg--gradient\">\n            <div class=\"club-box-def club-full-height\">\n                <div class=\"club-dynamic-dotted-wrap club-full-height\">\n                    <h3 class=\"club-h4-title\">\n                        <a class=\"club-link-primary club-hover-connect club-dynamic-dotted__text\" href=\"https:\/\/community.skin.club\/en\/news\/aurora-advanced-to-the-playoffs-of-esports-world-cup-2026\">\n                            Aurora advanced to the playoffs of Esports World Cup 2026                        <\/a>\n                    <\/h3>\n                <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <div class=\"club-bottom-line\"><\/div>\n<\/article>    <\/div>\n<\/div><h2>An Approximation of the Moment<\/h2><p>The analyst stressed that the calculation remains an approximation. Bugs or unnoticed mistakes may still affect the result.<\/p><blockquote class=\"custom-bq\"><div class=\"custom-bq-q\"><p>For the round win probability, I would ideally account for more variables and use a larger sample, But given the circumstances, I&rsquo;d still call this &lsquo;good enough.&rsquo;<\/p><\/div><\/blockquote><p>Still, the numbers show why gr1ks&rsquo; 1v3 against Spirit stood out. BIG&rsquo;s player overcame a low-probability round while completing an even rarer series of shots.<\/p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":81,"featured_media":416680,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[1193,4633],"class_list":["post-416679","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-esports-world-cup-2026","tag-ewc-2026-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>gr1ks\u2019 BIG 1v3 Clutch Had a 2.74% Shot Sequence Chance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analysis shows gr1ks\u2019 1v3 clutch for BIG against Spirit had a 2.74% chance of 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