100 Thieves have started their Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier campaign with victories, but their path through the group stage may provide significantly less value in the Valve Regional Standings than the routes of some of their direct rivals. VRS analyst Jesper “Udknud” Larsen highlighted how the qualifier draw and the ranking status of opponents can create major differences even between teams producing similar results.
100 Thieves’ wins could have limited VRS value
According to Udknud, 100 Thieves were unfortunate with how their group developed. An upset in the other opening match changed their potential path and left them facing opponents that offer little additional value from a VRS perspective.
Their next opponent, NADE, is currently unranked and, according to the analyst, is unlikely to receive a VRS ranking from the event. That means another victory would help 100 Thieves advance in the qualifier but would provide limited benefit when Valve calculates the strength of their results.
Udknud explained that the team would still receive credit for two LAN victories, but the value of those wins is reduced because of the opponents involved.
They will still get 2 LAN wins in VRS, but those don’t actually have that much value at this point in time.
The situation is particularly important because the main qualification deadline is still some distance away, leaving teams with time to accumulate more valuable results.
BC.Game have already gained more from their victories
Udknud contrasted 100 Thieves’ situation with BC.Game, whose route through the qualifier has included victories against ranked opponents.
Because those wins came against teams already represented in the VRS, and because the qualifier carries a relatively high event weight, BC.Game can potentially collect considerably more ranking points from their group-stage run.
The analyst stressed that this difference is largely down to the draw rather than anything 100 Thieves could control.
This is just luck of the draw (affected by your rank going into the event) and randomness totally outside 100T’s control.
As a result, two teams can progress through the same stage with similar records while receiving noticeably different benefits in the Valve ranking.
Playoffs remain the biggest VRS opportunity
The situation could change once the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier reaches the playoffs. Udknud noted that this is where teams have a better opportunity to face highly ranked opposition and collect significantly more valuable results.
The stronger the opponents a team defeats, the greater the potential impact on its VRS position. For 100 Thieves, reaching the playoff stage could therefore be important not only in the battle for an EWC 2026 berth but also for improving their position ahead of future invitation deadlines.
The example once again highlights one of the unusual aspects of the VRS system: winning alone does not determine the value of a result. The strength and ranking status of the opponent, event weight and tournament path can make two otherwise similar runs considerably different from a ranking perspective.
