100 Thieves’ first LAN run of 2026 has already sparked debate across the Counter-Strike scene. After eliminating Ninjas in Pyjamas in a dramatic three-map series at Roman Imperium Cup V, the North American organization secured a playoff berth — and suddenly, talk of a potential Major qualification is back on the table. But while the win was impressive, analysts warn that the road ahead is extremely narrow.
Playoff breakthrough after group-stage chaos
Placed in Group D alongside BESTIA and Monte, 100 Thieves suffered a brutal start. In the opening best-of-one, NiP demolished them 13–2 on Nuke, raising immediate concerns about the team’s LAN readiness. However, the group quickly turned dramatic.
NiP fell to Monte, who locked in a playoff spot, while 100 Thieves bounced back by eliminating BESTIA to stay alive. That set up a high-stakes rematch against the Swedes — this time in a best-of-three series for survival. The decider on Ancient went to overtime, where 100 Thieves finally closed it out 16–12 to win the series 2–1:
- Dust2 — 13:7 (100T)
- Nuke — 9:13 (NiP)
- Ancient — 16:12 (OT)
William “sirah” Kjærsgaard (1.22 rating) and André “Ag1l” Gil (1.20) led the charge, while NiP exited the tournament in a shock group-stage elimination. It marked the first true statement win of 100 Thieves’ new era.
VRS implications: a “fairy-tale” scenario
Following the result, VRS analyst Jesper “Udknud” Larsen outlined what he described as a potential “fairy-tale path” for 100 Thieves toward Major contention. According to Larsen, if 100T were to:
- Win Roman Imperium Cup V
- Also win DraculAN 5
- Defeat multiple strong LAN opponents in the process
They could accumulate roughly 1480 VRS points by the March ranking update — potentially placing them around 16th in the world. However, he stressed how unlikely such a run would be:
Sure they can! But it’s a very narrow road.
He added that it would require around 10 additional LAN wins, including victories over teams like BetBoom, HOTU, Gentle Mates, HEROIC and FlyQuest. The upcoming quarter-final against BetBoom is particularly crucial — reportedly worth around 200 VRS points, with additional prize-money weight amplifying its impact under the VRS system.
Community divided: hype vs reality
Not everyone is convinced. Some fans dismissed the idea outright:
ZERO chance they win 10 LANs.
Others pointed to BetBoom’s form, noting their recent wins over fnatic, ENCE and SINNERS. One user commented:
I don’t see them beating BetBoom today… The win vs NiP looked kinda lucky.
Still, there are believers willing to embrace the momentum — even joking about “betting the house” in a miracle run.
The ranking volatility factor
Larsen also emphasized a key detail: if 100 Thieves do go on a sudden winning streak, their ranking would not be well “rooted” due to limited matches played. That means their position could rise quickly — but also fall just as fast.
What goes up quickly can also go down quickly, since the rank would not be very well ‘rooted’.
For now, 100 Thieves have done the first part — proving they can win on LAN against established opposition. The next test comes in the quarter-finals against BetBoom. If they win, the fairy tale continues. If not, the Major dream may have to wait.
