One result can swing a team’s Major chance by more than 90 percentage points. New simulation data from Udknud, covering three upcoming CS2 events, Stake Ranked Episode 4, iBUYPOWER Masters FML 2026, and 1win Private Club Season 1, reveals exactly how much each team stands to gain from a win or lose from a poor run.
This matters because not every team faces the same pressure. Some rosters, like Liquid, are already close to locking in their Major spot no matter what happens this week. Others, like FaZe, could see their Major hopes collapse almost overnight with a single bad series. The data below shows exactly where the biggest swings sit.
How the Simulations Work
The figures come from Udknud, based on 50,000 simulated seasons covering 49.4 million matches. For each team, the model shows a Major chance before the event, then how that number shifts depending on the final placement, from first place down to a 7-8th finish. Therefore, the gap between a team’s best-case and worst-case outcome shows how much is genuinely at stake for them this week.
Stake Ranked Episode 4 – FaZe’s Razor-Thin Margin
FaZe enter Stake Ranked Episode 4 with a 66.5% Major chance. However, that number moves dramatically depending on the result. A first-place finish would push FaZe’s Major chance up to 99.4%. A 7-8th place finish, on the other hand, would drop it to just 6.8%.
That is a swing of more than 90 percentage points, the largest of any team in the field. In short, an 0-2 start at Stake Ranked Episode 4 would all but end FaZe’s Major campaign, even with their spot at the Roman Imperium Cup already secured.
Other teams in the event face smaller, but still meaningful, swings:
- B8 — 94.5% before, 100% on a win, 73.5% on a 7-8th finish
- Astralis — 89.0% before, 99.7% on a win, 72.0% on a 7-8th finish
- Alliance — 80.7% before, 97.2% on a win, 63.7% on a 7-8th finish
- BIG — 52.8% before, 88.0% on a win, 34.5% on a 7-8th finish
- Nemiga — 45.1% before, 90.6% on a win, 29.5% on a 7-8th finish
- Luminosity — 42.4% before, 90.3% on a win, 19.0% on a 7-8th finish
- fnatic — 7.5% before, 51.3% on a win, 2.8% on a 7-8th finish
iBUYPOWER Masters FML 2026 – Wildcard Carries the Biggest Risk
At iBUYPOWER Masters FML 2026, the picture looks different at the top of the standings. Liquid sit at 98.1% before the event, and even a 7-8th place finish would only drop them to 94.5%. M80 shows a similarly small swing, from 96.5% down to 90.3% in the worst case. As a result, both teams face relatively low stakes this week compared to the rest of the field.
Wildcard, meanwhile, faces the largest swing in the Americas region. Their Major chance sits at 51.9% before the event, but a win would push that up to 90.0%, while a 7-8th finish would drop it to just 15.5%.
The full picture across the Americas field:
- Liquid — 98.1% before, 99.8% on a win, 94.5% on a 7-8th finish
- M80 — 96.5% before, 99.7% on a win, 90.3% on a 7-8th finish
- DENDELE — 88.8% before, 98.6% on a win, 73.3% on a 7-8th finish
- NRG — 85.3% before, 99.3% on a win, 66.9% on a 7-8th finish
- Wildcard — 51.9% before, 90.0% on a win, 15.5% on a 7-8th finish
- BESTIA — 17.7% before, 69.5% on a win, 4.5% on a 7-8th finish
- Voca — 9.0% before, 53.9% on a win, 1.6% on a 7-8th finish
- Chicken Coop — 0.1% before, 0.3% on a win, 0% on a 7-8th finish
For BESTIA and Voca, a strong run could still meaningfully lift their chances. Chicken Coop, however, shows almost no movement in either direction, meaning their Major race is effectively already decided.
1win Private Club Season 1 – Five Teams Cannot Afford to Go 0-2
The European field at 1win Private Club Season 1 presents the clearest example of a must-win situation. Five teams enter with real Major hopes attached to a strong result: EYEBALLERS, GamerLegion, Ninjas in Pyjamas, K27, and SINNERS. For all five, a 7-8th place finish would push their Major chance down close to zero, effectively ending their race. According to the simulation, two of these five teams will statistically finish 0-2.
At the top of the bracket, the swings are just as significant. Alliance could rise from 80.7% to 94.0% with a win, while magic could climb from 69.0% to 93.5%. 3DMAX shows the widest range among the top three, moving from 52.4% before the event up to 88.9% on a win, or down to 29.6% on a 7-8th finish. Whichever team wins the event outright will see the largest single boost to their Major chance in the entire field.
The full breakdown for 1win Private Club Season 1:
- Alliance — 80.7% before, 94.0% on a win, 64.2% on a 7-8th finish
- magic — 69.0% before, 93.5% on a win, 42.5% on a 7-8th finish
- 3DMAX — 52.4% before, 88.9% on a win, 29.6% on a 7-8th finish
- EYEBALLERS — 8.1% before, 39.7% on a win, 1.5% on a 7-8th finish
- GamerLegion — 7.6% before, 28.8% on a win, 1.0% on a 7-8th finish
- Ninjas in Pyjamas — 7.4% before, 32.2% on a win, 0.7% on a 7-8th finish
- K27 — 3.6% before, 25.2% on a win, 0.2% on a 7-8th finish
- SINNERS — 1.6% before, 18.5% on a win, 0.2% on a 7-8th finish
Why These Swings Matter
According to the simulation data across all three events, the size of the swing, not the raw Major chance, is what defines how much pressure a team is really under this week. FaZe illustrate that point most clearly, facing a shift of over 90 percentage points between their best and worst outcome at Stake Ranked Episode 4. Wildcard and the lower-seeded teams at 1win Private Club Season 1 face similarly steep stakes, while teams like Liquid and Chicken Coop have comparatively little left to gain or lose. In addition, the team that wins 1win Private Club Season 1 outright stands to make the single biggest jump in Major chance across the entire field. Finally, these numbers make clear that the coming matches will do far more than decide a bracket. For several teams, they will decide the Major race itself.
