BIG player Gleb “gr1ks” Gazin produced an extraordinary 1v3 clutch against Spirit at Esports World Cup 2026. However, a new analysis suggests that repeating the full sequence of shots had only a 2.74% probability.
The clutch included two consecutive no-scope shots and an airborne AK shot. Therefore, the sequence quickly became one of the most unusual moments in the match.
CT Side Won Only 11% of Similar Rounds
Data analyst eugenio8a8 examined how unlikely the situation was. He used the DemoQuery desktop app to identify the round conditions.
The round was a CT full buy against a T-side semi-buy. It was also a 1v3 situation before the bomb plant.
Afterward, eugenio8a8 searched a large database of professional demos for matching rounds. He found 27 comparable rounds featuring a T-side semi-buy versus a CT full buy in a pre-plant 1v3.
The CT player won only 11% of those rounds. As a result, gr1ks’ clutch was already an uncommon outcome before the individual shots were considered.
The 2.74% Shot Sequence
eugenio8a8 also calculated the probability of gr1ks repeating every shot in the clutch. The first shot had a 93.14% probability, while the second shot had a 54.12% probability.
The final airborne AK shot had a 5.43% probability. When these three probabilities were multiplied, the complete sequence reached approximately 2.74%.
How unlikely was this insane 1v3 from gr1ks of BIG versus Spirit? From 27 comparable pro rounds, the CT won only 11% of the time. I then recreated every shot: 93.14% → 54.12% → 5.43%. Full sequence probability: just 2.74%.
How unlikely was this insane 1v3 from @gr1ks24 of @BIGCLANgg versus @Team__Spirit ?
From 27 comparable pro rounds, the CT won only 11% of the time.
I then recreated every shot: 93.14% → 54.12% → 5.43%.
Full sequence probability: just 2.74% https://t.co/Iyw0SM2D8J pic.twitter.com/w67SOow7E6
— eugenio8a8 (@eugenio8a8) August 16, 2026
An Approximation of the Moment
The analyst stressed that the calculation remains an approximation. Bugs or unnoticed mistakes may still affect the result.
For the round win probability, I would ideally account for more variables and use a larger sample, But given the circumstances, I’d still call this ‘good enough.’
Still, the numbers show why gr1ks’ 1v3 against Spirit stood out. BIG’s player overcame a low-probability round while completing an even rarer series of shots.
