Natus Vincere’s chances of reaching the PGL Singapore Major 2026 depend heavily on who you ask. HLTV gives NAVI around 45%, Mischief says 54.5%, and Udknud calculates 77.1%.
This gap matters because all three forecasts cover the same European race for the top 18 spots. However, they disagree about several teams, not only NAVI. As a result, fans now have three different pictures of who will make the cut.
HLTV Enters the Prediction Race
HLTV recently added its own Major prediction tool. It shows each team’s chance of reaching the event. In addition, users can check how results at other tournaments change those odds.
Two VRS analysts had already published their own models. Mischief released his update on September 29 and calls it a forecast. Udknud simulated the race on September 30 and used 50,000 simulations. He also said the HLTV tool still has bugs, so a second or third opinion remains useful.
Where the Three Forecasts Split
NAVI show the biggest gap. HLTV estimates only a 25% chance that the team reaches the EPL playoffs. If NAVI get there, their Major chances rise to 88%. However, a 9th to 16th place finish would drop them to 30%. Meanwhile, Mischief notes that two wins at EPL and PGL are still likely enough, about 90% of the time. He adds that waiting too long could make the race very tight on deadline day.
FaZe also divide the models. HLTV gives them 55.0%, while Mischief says 86.2% and Udknud says 85.2%. Mischief explains that FaZe secured a spot at DRL7 from the waiting list, which improved their odds.
Several teams switch sides of the top 18 line depending on the source. For example, Nemiga sit at 64.6% on HLTV, but Mischief puts them at 42.2% among teams not predicted to qualify. Udknud places them inside the top 18 with 47.8%. Luminosity show a similar split. HLTV gives them 57.3%, compared with 31.8% from Mischief and 37.6% from Udknud. BIG fall on the other side of the line in Udknud’s model, with 45.0%. HLTV gives them 51.3% and Mischief 61.2%. Finally, Alliance have 45.8% on HLTV, but 63.2% with Mischief and 50.1% with Udknud.
What the Analysts Say
Mischief summed up his update with a clear message. FaZe secured another LAN, which puts them in the “driving seat.” He also wrote that the race got much closer after results from 100 Thieves, ENVY and Nemiga. In addition, he noted that GamerLegion and NiP stay alive.
Udknud explained that his forecast uses an “Assumed strength” value for each team.
What the Numbers Mean for the Race
According to HLTV, Mischief and Udknud, the fight for the European top 18 is still open. Seven teams are clear at the top on HLTV, yet the teams near the cut line change from one model to the next. NAVI’s odds range from about 45% to 77.1%. Their result at EPL could move the HLTV number from 30% to 88%. Therefore, upcoming matches will likely matter more than any single forecast.
