VRS Analyst Mischief has raised NAVI’s chance of reaching the Major to about 67.7%. Earlier, his forecast gave the team only 51.6%. The change came after results that had nothing to do with NAVI’s own matches.
The European Major race is extremely tight, and small shifts can decide who qualifies. In this case, other teams’ losses and withdrawals helped NAVI more than any result of their own.
How the Major Race Got So Tight
Mischief, who runs the VRS forecast, says the EU race is on a knife edge. According to him, the average gap between 18th and 19th place is about 8 points. However, it can often shrink to less than one point.
His forecast from 19 October 2026 showed NAVI in Stage 1 with a 51.6% chance of making the Major. At the time, their expected ranking range was 12th to 28th place. The notes said the model likely underestimated them because it assumed they would prioritise Beijing.
Why NAVI’s Odds Changed
Mischief explained that the earlier model assumed NAVI would skip playing out HyperX in favour of Beijing. The logic was simple. If NAVI went out of PGL, even a HyperX win could leave them 10 to 15 points short in many scenarios. As a result, throwing away two ESL events for an unideal shot at the Major looked unlikely.
Meanwhile, the situation has changed. 100 Thieves lost to both HEROIC and MIBR, and they were then eliminated from Pulse III. Mischief says 100 Thieves are currently the team most likely to finish 19th. When that happens, the gap to 18th is about 8 points. Had 100 Thieves taken third place at Pulse III, they would often have finished above NAVI. NAVI could even have been pushed to 19th despite a HyperX win.
NAVI also benefited from HEROIC dropping out of Tesla Cup, along with some smaller factors. In addition, Luminosity could finish behind NAVI in 19th place with a similar gap. A win over HEROIC would have roughly made the difference for them. After HEROIC’s exit from Tesla Cup, that is no longer possible.
What Changes in the Forecast
Because of these shifts, playing out HyperX now looks far more likely to help NAVI. Mischief says the team is now more likely to finish 18th and qualify than to finish 19th. Therefore, he updated his simulations to assume that NAVI will play HyperX in full. This change was not part of the morning update.
However, he added a crucial warning. If NAVI’s HyperX group is not full, the maths changes significantly, because everything is so close.
Still a Lot of Work Ahead
Even with the higher number, the situation is far from settled. NAVI still need at least two wins at PGL Bucharest. However, the risk that rivals overtake them has become smaller.
In short, NAVI’s path to the Major looks clearer than it did a few days ago. Their qualification still depends on the PGL results and on whether the HyperX group is complete. For now, the forecast has moved in their favour.
