The Swiss stage is over, the LANXESS Arena awaits, and only eight teams remain in contention for the biggest trophy in Counter-Strike. After ten days of competition, surprises, and eliminations, the IEM Cologne Major 2026 has reached the stage where every series matters and every mistake can end a championship run.
The playoff bracket has created two very different stories. On one side stand teams like FURIA, 9z, Aurora and BetBoom, all looking to capitalize on a favorable path to the Grand Final. On the other, Vitality, Spirit, Falcons and G2 find themselves locked in what many consider the true gauntlet of the tournament. For François “Cnd” Balembois, the bracket itself may be one of the defining stories of the Major.
It’s where Vitality, Falcons and Spirit are playing. This is probably the hardest side ever in a Major playoff bracket
FURIA Lead the Open Side of the Bracket
If there is one team that exceeded Cnd’s expectations during Stage 3, it is FURIA. The Brazilians advanced with a perfect 3-0 record despite entering the stage with questions surrounding their consistency. According to Cnd, this is the strongest version of FURIA seen all year.
read more
Their quarter-final opponent, 9z, produced one of the biggest upsets of the tournament by defeating Vitality and securing a playoff berth. However, Cnd believes there is a significant difference between beating Vitality in the Swiss stage and defeating elite opposition inside the arena.
He expects 9z to remain competitive, especially given the similarities between the two South American teams, but ultimately sees FURIA holding the advantage in both experience and individual quality.
They have shown probably their best level since the beginning of the year
For 9z, simply reaching the playoffs is already a remarkable achievement after one of the most memorable runs of the Major. Their victory over Vitality proved they can challenge anyone on a good day, but Cnd believes the playoffs represent an entirely different test.
Beating Vitality is a good performance, but this is not the Vitality playoff
Because of the bracket draw and FURIA’s recent level, Cnd even predicts the Brazilians could reach the Grand Final.
I truly think FURIA will go through 9z and probably until the final
Aurora and BetBoom Look to Seize Their Opportunity
The second quarter-final may be the most difficult matchup to predict. Both Aurora and BetBoom exceeded expectations in Stage 3, and both enter the arena believing they can reach the semi-finals.
read more
Aurora recovered impressively after an early loss and displayed some of the strongest Counter-Strike they have played in months. Woxic looked revitalized, Wicadia continued his strong form, and the team’s recent investment in a mental coach appears to be paying dividends.
Yet despite the praise, Cnd remains cautious. His main concern is Aurora’s long-standing tendency to look less comfortable on stage than in studio environments.
Every time they are going on stage, it’s like not the same team again
BetBoom arrive with a different narrative. Playing with a stand-in, they have become one of the tournament’s biggest surprises thanks to strong leadership from Boombl4 and excellent individual performances throughout the roster. The player that impressed Cnd the most is Magnojez, whom he sees as one of the brightest young talents at the event.
Magnojez is so, so good. He’s probably a player for the future for a top five team in the world
While he considers the matchup extremely close, Cnd ultimately gives BetBoom a slight edge and believes they have a genuine opportunity to continue their Cinderella run.
Spirit Look Like Vitality’s Biggest Threat
Spirit enter the playoffs as one of the most convincing teams of the Major. Donk has once again reminded everyone why he is considered one of the most dominant players in the world, while sh1ro has quietly delivered elite performances throughout both Stage 2 and Stage 3.
read more
Together, they have formed one of the most dangerous duos left in the tournament.
Their reward is a quarter-final against G2, a team that already exceeded expectations by reaching the arena. G2 deserve enormous credit for surviving a difficult Swiss stage and even defeating NAVI along the way, but Cnd believes Spirit are currently operating on another level.
If Spirit is showing the same level of what we have seen since the beginning of this Major, I truly think G2 has no chance
That does not mean G2 are being overlooked. HeavyGod has delivered strong performances, and the roster has shown it can upset elite teams. Still, Spirit remain overwhelming favorites.
G2 has already overperformed in this tournament
One of the biggest talking points surrounding Spirit is the absence of coach hally. While Cnd acknowledges it could become important during difficult moments, he does not view it as a major issue unless Spirit lose momentum inside a series.
More importantly, he sees Spirit as the only team capable of stopping Vitality’s march toward another title.
I see in Spirit probably the only team able to beat Vitality in this Major
Vitality and Falcons Meet Far Too Early
While the upper bracket appears relatively open, the bottom half features a clash many fans expected to see much later in the tournament. Falcons versus Vitality feels more like a Grand Final contender matchup than a quarter-final. The roster built around karrigan, NiKo, m0NESY and kyousuke has not always looked convincing during the Major, but Cnd believes playoff Counter-Strike brings out the best in karrigan-led teams.
read more
Throughout his career, karrigan has repeatedly shown an ability to elevate both his own level and that of his teammates when the pressure is highest.
Karrigan in playoffs is always difficult to play against
That makes Falcons one of the most dangerous teams remaining despite their inconsistent path through Stage 3. Standing opposite them is Vitality, the tournament favorite and the team Cnd ultimately expects to lift the trophy.
While players like flameZ and ropz have not always performed at their usual standards, he believes the playoffs represent an entirely different competition. Historically, Vitality have often looked vulnerable in group stages before reaching another level once the arena lights turn on.
Now it’s a completely different tournament
Even after several shaky moments earlier in the Major, Cnd still considers Vitality the team to beat.
This is where Vitality is probably the best team in the world right now
Cnd’s Pick’Em Prediction
Although Spirit, Falcons and several dark horses remain dangerous, Cnd has not changed his prediction. The French analyst still believes Vitality will find a way through the toughest side of the bracket and continue building one of the greatest eras Counter-Strike has ever seen.
read more
I have picked Vitality
On the opposite side, he expects FURIA to capitalize on the bracket and reach the championship match, setting up a fascinating Brazil-versus-France showdown.
The best final we can have is Vitality against FURIA
His final prediction is straightforward:
- Champion — Vitality
- Runner-up — FURIA
- Grand Final — Vitality 3-1 FURIA
If those predictions come true, Cologne will conclude with another chapter in Vitality’s historic era. If not, one of the seven remaining challengers will have to survive what Cnd believes may be the toughest playoff bracket a Major has ever produced. Now it’s your turn — make your picks in the Skin.Club Pick’Em Challenge and see if you can predict the road to the trophy better than Cnd.
