A new qualification snapshot for the PGL Singapore Major has just landed. It shows how tight the fight for Europe’s 18 Major spots has become. The data was calculated on September 20, 2026, before any matches were played that day. Even so, it already reveals sharp rises and falls across the 34-team European field.
This matters because only a few weeks remain before the qualification window closes on November 2nd. As a result, every remaining match carries extra weight. A single weekend can push a team from safety into real danger, or the other way around.
How the PGL Singapore Major EU Race Works
The projection comes from a large simulation model built for the Counter-Strike 2 scene. It ran 50,000 simulated seasons, covering 51.8 million matches in total. Each simulation plays out the remaining schedule to estimate how likely every team is to finish inside the Top 18 in Europe. That Top 18 threshold, known as the EU cut, decides which teams advance toward the PGL Singapore Major.
The table also tracks each team’s stage invite chances for Stage 1, Stage 2 and Stage 3. In addition, it records progress toward the LAN wins a team needs to lock in its spot. Meanwhile, it shows each team’s most recent results and how far its qualification odds moved over the past week.
Where the 34 EU Teams Stand
Seven teams currently hold better than a 99.9 percent chance of qualifying. Spirit leads the group, with a projected final placement between first and third. Falcons, Vitality, MOUZ, G2 and Aurora follow close behind. FUT completes the group too, despite a wider projected range of third to tenth. Aurora’s rise stands out, since the team reached full certainty after a 3-0 run in its most recent matches.
Just below that group, B8 sits at 97.9 percent. The team gained 10.0 percentage points after winning all five matches last week. BetBoom follows at 97.5 percent, while Astralis holds 86.7 percent. Natus Vincere and PARIVISION sit close together, at 82.7 and 82.2 percent. However, Natus Vincere lost both of its matches last week. As a result, its qualification chance dropped by 12.9 percentage points. Alliance rounds out this tier at 80.9 percent, after gaining 1.7 points over the same stretch.
Further down the table, the race grows tighter. magic sits at 69.1 percent after also losing both of its matches last week, a result that cost
the team 14.4 percentage points. Inner Circle climbed to 65.5 percent following a 4-1 week. FaZe slipped to 58.9 percent, losing 3.6 points, while BIG improved to 58.0 percent. Nemiga made the biggest jump of the week. The team rose 17.6 percentage points to 49.3 percent after a 6-1 run.
Nemiga currently holds the final Top 18 spot. That means the EU cut line sits right behind it. Every team below this point is now chasing one of the last places in the European qualification race.
Luminosity leads the chasing pack at 40.9 percent after a 4-2 week. HEROIC follows at 40.1 percent, and HOTU sits at 38.6 percent. 3DMAX holds 27.5 percent. Further back, 1win sits at 18.5 percent, and Virtus.pro follows at 17.8 percent. GamerLegion suffered the sharpest fall of the week, dropping 15.2 percentage points to 13.3 percent despite a 2-3 record. 100 Thieves sits close behind at 13.0 percent, while Ninjas in Pyjamas fell 7.6 points to 11.2 percent. EYEBALLERS, fnatic and JiJieHao occupy the 7 to 8 percent range. Finally, BBL, FOKUS, BC.Game and SINNERS close out the standings between 3.0 and 4.1 percent.
Analyst Take on the Week’s Biggest Shifts
Udknud, who built the prediction model, shared several observations alongside the update. According to Udknud, Aurora has finished the job and is now locked in. The team can therefore focus on the race for a Stage 3 invite. Meanwhile, both Natus Vincere and magic were hurt by their results at StarLadder, which put them back in real danger.
Udknud also pointed to B8, which has all but secured its place through strong results outside Tier 1 events. In addition, Nemiga made big moves early in the week to climb toward safety. FaZe, however, remains harder to read. Udknud noted that the team’s schedule had to be factored into the projected LAN wins, which lowered its overall chance.
What This Means Before the November Deadline
With the qualification window closing on November 2nd, the margins at the bottom of the Top 18 remain extremely thin. Nemiga currently holds the line, but Luminosity, HEROIC and HOTU all sit within reach of overtaking it. Therefore, results over the coming weeks could still reshape the entire European Major picture before the field is finalized.
