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Prediction for Aurora vs Vitality at ESL Pro League Season 24

News
Oct 09
115 views 4 mins read

Aurora and Vitality meet in the semifinal of ESL Pro League Season 24. Both teams arrive on win streaks, and the winner reaches the final. Vitality sit 2nd in the VRS, while Aurora rank 6th. The two teams also met twice at StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 less than a month ago.

Format & Tournament Specifics

This is a semifinal at ESL Pro League Season 24. The loser goes home, so every map will matter. Vitality are the higher-ranked side and come in on a six-match win streak. However, Aurora have won three matches in a row and have already beaten Vitality once this fall.

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Current Form

Aurora: three wins in a row and a recent win over Vitality

Aurora beat 1win 2:0 and took FURIA and BetBoom in three maps. Their only recent loss came against Falcons. As a result, they enter this semifinal in confident form.

Recent results:

  • Aurora 2:0 1win
  • Aurora 2:1 FURIA
  • Aurora 2:1 BetBoom
  • Aurora 0:2 Falcons
  • Aurora 2:0 9z

The key player is Jimpphat. He posts a 1.15 rating, 0.70 kills per round, 0.60 deaths per round, 74.9% KAST, a 1.07 multi-kill rating, +1.19% round swing and 76.4 ADR. He is consistent, but he faces a very tough duel here.

Photo Copyright by ESL. Source: photos.eslgaming.com

Vitality: a six-match win streak, with a win over Aurora

Vitality beat PARIVISION and 1win 2:0. They also won three-map series against Falcons and Natus Vincere. In addition, they beat Aurora 3:1 in their latest meeting. Therefore, Vitality look like the most stable team in this matchup.

Recent results:

  • Vitality 2:0 PARIVISION
  • Vitality 2:1 Falcons
  • Vitality 2:1 Natus Vincere
  • Vitality 2:0 1win
  • Vitality 3:1 Aurora

Their key player is ZywOo. He posts a 1.35 rating, 0.82 kills per round, 0.57 deaths per round, 76.7% KAST, a 1.30 multi-kill rating, +3.82% round swing and 85.8 ADR. He leads Jimpphat on every key stat. His round swing of +3.82% is especially large next to Jimpphat’s +1.19%.

Photo Copyright by ESL. Source: photos.eslgaming.com

Head-to-Head

Vitality hold the edge in this matchup. Across all meetings, Aurora have won 8 maps, Vitality have won 11, and 3 maps went to overtime.

The two sides met twice at StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026. On September 19, Aurora won 2–1. They took Nuke 13–8, lost Inferno 11–13 and won Anubis 13–7. One day later, on September 20, Vitality won 3–1. They took Cache 13–7 and Mirage 13–4, Aurora won Inferno 13–11, and Vitality finished with Anubis 13–4.

Before that, Vitality won 2–0 at BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026 on March 28, with scores of 13–5 on Nuke and 13–5 on Inferno. They also won 2–0 at PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026 on February 20, with 13–10 on Overpass and 13–8 on Inferno. At IEM Kraków 2026 on February 3, Vitality again won 2–0. They took Overpass 13–7 and then won Ancient 25–22 in overtime.

Map Pool & Veto

Win rate over the past 3 months (Aurora | Vitality):

  • Cache: 50% (6 maps) | 83% (6 maps)
  • Dust2: 50% (8 maps) | 85% (13 maps)
  • Mirage: 64% (14 maps) | 67% (9 maps)
  • Inferno: 57% (7 maps) | 60% (5 maps)
  • Nuke: 88% (8 maps) | 50% (8 maps)
  • Ancient: — (1 map) | — (0 maps)
  • Anubis: 70% (10 maps) | 44% (9 maps)

Expected veto: Vitality will almost certainly ban Nuke, where Aurora hold an elite 88% over eight maps. In return, Aurora have a clear reason to ban Dust2, where Vitality win 85% over a large 13-map sample.

After those bans, Aurora can pick Anubis, where they hold 70% and Vitality sit at 44%. Meanwhile, Vitality can answer with Cache, where they win 83% and Aurora only 50%. Mirage looks like the most likely decider, as both teams post strong numbers there on large samples. Vitality hold a small edge at 67% against Aurora’s 64%. However, Inferno is another close option, with 60% for Vitality and 57% for Aurora.

VRS forecast: Aurora currently have 1836 points and sit 6th. A win would lift them to 1836 + 67 = 1903 points and 4th place. A loss would cost them 34 points, taking them to 1836 − 34 = 1802 and 7th place.

Vitality have 1965 points and sit 2nd. A win would add no points, so they would stay at 1965 and 2nd place. A loss would cost them 14 points, taking them to 1965 − 14 = 1951, and they would stay 2nd.

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Prediction

Aurora have real arguments. They are on a three-match win streak, and they took Vitality to a decider on September 19. In addition, Nuke and Anubis give them two strong map options.

Still, Vitality look like the better side here. ZywOo leads Jimpphat on every key stat, and Vitality have won their last six matches. Moreover, they won the latest meeting 3–1 and took five of the last six series against Aurora, including three clean 2–0 wins. However, Aurora’s Anubis and Nuke numbers show they can take at least one map, so expect a close series.

If Vitality ban Nuke and take Cache, they should reach the final. Aurora will need Anubis and a strong Mirage to pull off an upset.

Projected result: Vitality 2–1 Aurora

about whyimalive

I always wanted to be part of esports somehow — as a player, chasing that dream. Turns out I ended up covering the CS2 scene instead, breaking down the news that matters to people who live and breathe this game.

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