BLAST Open Porto 2026 will continue in Group B with an Upper final match between MOUZ and Falcons. The teams will play a Bo3 for the most favorable position before the Playoffs: the winner will advance directly to the Semi-finals, while the losing team will still qualify for the playoffs but will start from the Quarter-finals. Falcons are ranked second in the world, MOUZ are fifth, while their head-to-head history and close map pool make the series much more competitive than the teams’ status may suggest.
BLAST OPEN PORTO 2026 GROUP B — FIGHT FOR DIRECT ADVANCEMENT TO THE SEMI-FINALS
The group stage of BLAST Open Porto 2026 is played in a Double Elimination Bo3 format. The winner of the Upper final finishes the group in first place and advances directly to the Playoffs Semi-finals, while the losing team keeps a place in the final stage but will start it from the Quarter-finals.
Therefore, both rosters have already guaranteed themselves continuation in the tournament, but the result of the series remains very important. Direct advancement to the Semi-finals means one fewer match on the way to the Grand final, and in a matchup between teams of this level, the opportunity to avoid an additional Bo3 in the playoffs can become a significant advantage.
HEAD-TO-HEAD — FALCONS HAVE THE ADVANTAGE
According to the presented statistics, Falcons have won 15 head-to-head maps against MOUZ’s ten. In May at CS Asia Championships 2026, Falcons took Nuke 13:10 and Dust2 13:7, while MOUZ answered with a 13:7 victory on Mirage. This confirms that the latest full series also went to Falcons.
At the same time, MOUZ have already found effective solutions against this opponent. At IEM Kraków 2026, they won Dust2 19:17 and Inferno 16:14, and earlier, individual maps between the teams regularly reached close scorelines. Falcons do have an overall advantage, but MOUZ cannot be called an uncomfortable or hopeless opponent for the favorite.
CURRENT FORM
MOUZ — a strong start in the group after an unstable stretch
MOUZ reached the Upper final after a convincing 2:0 victory over Inner Circle, and before that they also beat 9z 2:0. Over a wider stretch, the results were less stable: the team lost to FUT 0:2 and 1:2, but between those losses defeated GamerLegion 2:1 and PARIVISION 2:0.
The best listed individual numbers belong to torzsi, who has a 1.19 rating over the last three months. He shows 0.76 kills per round, only 0.56 deaths, 76.9% KAST, and a +2.91% round swing. Together with Spinx, xertioN, PR, and xelez, he forms a roster that has enough firepower to fight Falcons.
Falcons — a high level and m0NESY in excellent form
Falcons approach the match after victories over Legacy and Lynn Vision with the same 2:1 score. Earlier, the team also defeated The MongolZ and Astralis 2:0, although in one of their recent matches they lost to Legacy 0:2. Overall, Falcons remain one of the most stable teams in the world’s elite.
The key figure remains m0NESY with a 1.36 rating. He records 0.85 kills per round, has only 0.55 deaths, a 1.24 multi-kill rating, a +4.26% round swing, and 84.2 ADR. Together with NiKo, kyousuke, TeSeS, and karrigan, he gives Falcons very high individual potential in decisive rounds.
MAP POOL & VETO
Statistics over the last 3 months (MOUZ | Falcons):
- Cache: — | —
- Dust2: 78% | 75%
- Mirage: 62% | 50%
- Inferno: 75% | 67%
- Nuke: 89% | —
- Ancient: 25% | 40%
- Anubis: — | 80%
Expected veto:
- Falcons will logically benefit most from removing Nuke. MOUZ have an 89% win rate on this map across nine matches, making it the strongest part of their current pool. Even despite Falcons’ victory over MOUZ on Nuke in the latest head-to-head series, the statistical risk for the favorite remains too high.
- MOUZ, in turn, have an obvious reason to avoid Anubis. Falcons have won 80% of five played maps, while MOUZ have practically not used it in the presented stretch. Such a veto would allow the European roster to move the series toward much more comfortable Dust2, Mirage, or Inferno.
Likely maps:
- Dust2 looks like one of the most realistic options for the series. MOUZ have a 78% win rate here, Falcons have 75%, and both teams regularly use the map. The head-to-head history adds extra intrigue: Falcons won the latest Dust2 13:7, but earlier MOUZ won 19:17.
- Mirage could be a good choice for MOUZ, where they have 62% against Falcons’ 50% and have already beaten this opponent 13:7. If the series reaches a third map, Inferno looks like a logical compromise — 75% for MOUZ against 67% for Falcons.
KEY DUELS
- m0NESY vs torzsi — the main AWP duel of the series between the teams’ best players according to the presented statistics.
- NiKo vs Spinx — a rifle matchup capable of determining control of key positions and the teams’ stability in the middle of rounds.
- kyousuke vs xertioN — an aggressive duel for space, where one successful entry can completely change the structure of the round.
PREDICTION
MOUZ have enough arguments to make this series as close as possible. Their 89% on Nuke, 78% on Dust2, and 75% on Inferno create several strong directions for the veto, while victories over Inner Circle and 9z show that the team has started the tournament well. If MOUZ get Mirage or Nuke and torzsi can contain m0NESY, a third map looks very likely.
However, Falcons have the advantage across the combination of factors. The team is stronger in the world ranking, leads 15:10 in head-to-head maps, has a very dangerous Anubis, and receives huge individual impact from m0NESY. MOUZ are capable of taking one map, but Falcons look slightly more reliable over the distance of a Bo3 and have more arguments for direct advancement to the Semi-finals.
Projected result: Falcons 2–1 MOUZ
