BLAST Open Porto 2026 will continue the Opening Round in Group A with a match between Natus Vincere and M80. The teams will play a Bo3: the winner will advance to the Upper semi-finals, while the losing team will drop to Lower Round 1. Natus Vincere are ranked sixth in the world, while M80 are in 40th position, which is why the European roster approaches the series as the clear favorite.
BLAST OPEN PORTO 2026 GROUP A — FORMAT SPECIFICS
The group stage of BLAST Open Porto 2026 is played in a Double Elimination Bo3 format. Group winners advance directly to the Playoffs Semi-finals, while teams that finish the group in second and third place will receive spots in the Quarter-finals. In the Opening Round, victory allows a team to continue fighting in the upper bracket, while defeat sends them to Lower Round 1.
The Bo3 format should work in Natus Vincere’s favor, as the favorite gets more opportunities to convert its advantage in individual level and game structure. M80 can create problems on one comfortable map, but to win they need to consistently withstand NAVI’s tempo throughout the entire series.
HEAD-TO-HEAD — SMALL ADVANTAGE FOR NATUS VINCERE
Natus Vincere and M80 have played five maps in head-to-head meetings, and NAVI lead 3:2 in wins. At BLAST Open London 2025, M80 won Inferno 13:11 and Ancient 13:9, while Natus Vincere took Train 13:7. Later, at PGL Astana 2025, NAVI won Mirage 13:7 and Dust2 13:4.
As a result, the history of the matchup does not look one-sided, although the last two maps went to Natus Vincere. M80 have already proven that they can find weak points in the European roster, but in the new series the difference in the teams’ current status has become much larger.
CURRENT FORM
Natus Vincere — unstable results, but a high team level
Natus Vincere have recently been alternating wins and losses. The team defeated The MongolZ 2:1 and also beat 3DMAX 13:9, but lost to Legacy 0:2, G2 1:2, and Falcons 1:2. The current stretch cannot be called stable, but NAVI continue to regularly play against opponents of the highest level.
One of the key players remains b1t, who has a 1.15 rating over the last three months. He shows 0.74 kills per round, 76.9% KAST, and 80.0 ADR. Together with w0nderful, makazze, iM, and Aleksib, he gives Natus Vincere a strong enough foundation to control the series against M80.
M80 — a difficult stretch before the start of the tournament
M80 approach BLAST Open Porto after several unsuccessful matches. The team lost to Aurora 0:2 and Ninjas in Pyjamas 0:2, and also lost to G2 on Mirage 11:13. At the same time, before that the American roster defeated Voca, LAG, and WINNERS with a 2:0 score, so the team is still capable of confidently punishing lower-level opponents.
The best listed individual numbers belong to Lake with a 1.16 rating. He records 0.73 kills per round, has 73.0% KAST, a 1.19 multi-kill rating, and 78.7 ADR. Together with Swisher, JBa, slaxz-, and s1n, he remains the main threat for NAVI, although M80’s overall roster depth looks weaker.
MAP POOL & VETO
Statistics over the last 3 months (Natus Vincere | M80):
- Cache: — | —
- Dust2: 33% | 25%
- Mirage: 75% | 67%
- Inferno: 60% | 50%
- Nuke: — | —
- Ancient: 50% | 57%
- Anubis: — | —
Expected veto:
- M80 will logically try to limit Mirage. Natus Vincere have a 75% win rate on this map across four matches, while the American roster shows 67% across six maps. Mirage looks like one of the most comfortable options for NAVI in the current pool.
- Natus Vincere, in turn, may remove one of the maps where M80 can create the most problems. Ancient looks like one such option: the Americans have a 57% win rate across seven matches against NAVI’s 50%, so the favorite does not necessarily need to leave this map available.
Likely maps:
- Mirage looks like the most obvious choice for Natus Vincere. The team has a 75% win rate here against M80’s 67% and has already beaten the American roster on this map 13:7 in a head-to-head match.
- Ancient or Inferno may become M80’s answer. On Ancient, the Americans have a slight statistical advantage — 57% against 50%, while on Inferno the gap also remains relatively small: 50% for M80 against 60% for NAVI.
KEY DUELS
- b1t vs Lake — a matchup between the two most stable listed players on both teams, who can decide the outcome of key rifle rounds.
- w0nderful vs slaxz- — an AWP duel for opening frags and control of long distances.
- makazze vs Swisher — an aggressive rifle matchup that may affect space control and the tempo of attacks.
PREDICTION
M80 have enough experience to make individual maps competitive, and Lake is in good individual form. Mirage, Ancient, and Inferno do not show an absolute statistical advantage for NAVI, so the American roster can take advantage of the favorite’s mistakes, especially if they get a comfortable own pick.
However, the overall advantage remains with Natus Vincere. The team is placed much higher in the world ranking, regularly plays against the strongest opponents, and has more individual quality across the roster. M80 have recently lost several matches in a row against serious opposition, so with a normal veto, NAVI should control the series and advance to the Upper semi-finals.
Projected result: Natus Vincere 2–0 M80
