A year ago, The MongolZ were the best team in the world. Now, VRS calculations show they could miss the Major through the Asian route.
The numbers are stark. If The MongolZ go 0-3 at PGL Masters Bucharest, their chance to qualify drops to just 23.5%. This story matters because two well-known Asian teams may miss the PGL Singapore Major. The outcome will depend on results, travel plans and a small LAN event in the UK.
How the Asian Race Reached This Point
The Major race in Asia is tight. Several teams still fight for the remaining invite slots. Many of them can improve their position only through results at big events.
The MongolZ have two chances left to earn points. First, they play at PGL Masters Bucharest. Second, they accepted an invitation to 1w Private Club 2 to chase a slot in Stage 2. However, in the current situation, that second event could only hurt them.
What the VRS Numbers Show
At the moment, The MongolZ have a 62.8% chance of reaching the Major. A 0-3 result in Bucharest would cut that to 23.5%. If they finish 1-3, the chance would be 58.1%, which is lower than their current figure.
TYLOO are in a similar position. Their chance is 68.8% today. However, a 0-3 result in Romania would drop it to a record low of 6.8%. If TYLOO go 1-3, their chance would rise to 83.8%.
Meanwhile, 5star eSports lead this group with an 82.8% chance. Chinggis Warriors follow with 60.8%, and Lynn Vision Gaming have 50.9%. FlyQuest and BC.Game are in the best shape in Asia, with about a 99% chance to play at the Major. For that reason, they are not shown in the table.
The last open LAN with registration is EPICLAN49 in Kettering. Kettering is a town in the United Kingdom with a population of 63,000.
Expert View on the Risks
Analyst Mischief says the situation could get worse for The MongolZ if they finish last at 1w PC 2 in Serbia. “They would almost certainly require a 2-3 at PGL Masters to get a major invite slot, 2-3 wouldn’t even guarantee them safety,” he said.
He also said that a last-place finish in Bucharest would leave them one clear path. “Only a win at 1w PC2 will keep them safe,” Mischief said. He added that many European teams in similar spots have joined open LANs. For The MongolZ, however, this is no longer an option, because open events have ended and no new ones are planned.
Even so, Mischief sees a decent chance that The MongolZ will still reach the Major. “If they had attended an easy open LAN for a topup, they would already be safe,” he said.
He also gave a short summary of the race. “TYLOO & The MongolZ at risk of missing the Major,” he said. According to Mischief, both teams must avoid 0-3 at PGL Masters, and a 1-3 finish still keeps them at risk. For 5star, he said, “If 5star can navigate the travel logistics, they’re in a great spot.”
What Is EPICLAN and Why It Matters
EPICLAN is a tournament for semi-professional players from the UK. Players travel there to compete, and some of them later appear on HLTV. The final bracket is covered on the site, and 22 of the 49 events received coverage over ten years.
After VRS was introduced, EPIC events began to fit the rules for awarding points. As a result, Tier 2 teams started to attend them when they needed extra points. If TYLOO and The MongolZ fail in Romania, a trip to this British event would be their last chance.
Mischief also made a disclosure. He works as an admin at EPICLAN, but he has no contract and has never received payment. He attends at his own cost. He also said that, with two weeks left, he does not think anyone can get a UK visa in time. He added that he mentioned the event “for the love of the game.” Finally, he said his bias is that he is British and likes UK Counter-Strike. In his words, he would say the same about Iseries if Insomnia were in the same position.
Why This Race Matters
The Asian VRS race is now a story of risk and timing. The MongolZ and TYLOO both need to avoid a 0-3 result at PGL Masters Bucharest. A 1-3 finish would still leave them exposed, especially for The MongolZ.
The outcome will also decide who joins FlyQuest and BC.Game at the PGL Singapore Major. If The MongolZ miss it, they would go from top of the world to missing the Major in one year. That would be one of the biggest falls in recent Counter-Strike.
