Eternal Fire and fnatic can still qualify for the Major completely on their own. No help from other results is needed. Their chances look slim, but the math says they are still in the race.
This matters because most Major predictions focus on percentages, and those numbers change with every new result. A new table by Udknud takes a different approach. It asks a simpler question: can your favorite team still reach 100% safety through its own results?
Why the Percentages Can Be Confusing
Udknud pointed out that prediction percentages are a good way to see who the favorites are. However, they jump up and down after each match, which can make the picture hard to follow. As a result, fans may struggle to see which teams are truly in control of their path.
For that reason, Udknud built an alternative view of the EU Major race. The table still shows the current prediction for each team. In addition, it shows which teams can reach mathematical safety through their own results. Udknud also noted that some of these results may be unrealistic, but the table shows what is still possible.
Eight Teams Are Already Locked In
The EU region has 18 seats. Eight teams have already locked in their places: Vitality, MOUZ, Spirit, Aurora, Falcons, BETBOOM, G2 and Astralis. Three more teams sit at 99% or higher. Therefore, ten seats remain open.
According to the table, 16 teams are in control of their own destiny. Another seven teams need help, but they can still make it. The table is based on 50,000 simulated seasons, and 100% means a team qualifies in at least 99.8% of them, whatever other teams do.
What the Teams in Control Need
Among the teams in control, HEROIC lead with a 99.8% prediction. They need one win at Drac on 19 October. FUT are next at 99.6% and need one win at PGL on 24 October. Ninja in Pyjamas stand at 99% and need four wins at FiRe on 29 October.
1win have a 91% chance. They can reach 100% with three wins at Tesla on 27 October, or by winning GLuck on 31 October. Natus Vincere, at 82%, need a top-four finish at PGL. Meanwhile, PARIVISION, at 79%, need three wins at 1win2 on 19 October.
FaZe sit at 76% and have two routes. They can win Drac or win Tesla. Nemiga, at 64%, need five wins at PGL. B8, at 62%, must win Tesla.
The picture gets harder for the rest. magic (42%) need a final at 1win2 and a win at Stake5. Luminosity (40%) need a final at Drac and a win at Tesla. Alliance (25%) need three wins at 1win2 and a win at Tesla. BIG (23%) and fnatic (20%) both need a final at 1win2 and a win at Stake5. Envy (14%) need seven wins at Drac and a win at Tesla. Finally, Eternal Fire (5%) must win both Drac and Stake5.
Seven Teams Need Help
Seven teams depend on other results as well as their own. Even a title in every event they enter may not be enough. 100 Thieves (27%) can reach 91% at best by winning FiRe. Inner Circle (21%) can reach 99% by winning Stake5.
HOTU (11%) can reach 97% by winning Tesla and GLuck. Nemesis (8%) can also reach 97% by winning WINLINE9 and Stake5. K27 (6%) can reach 99% by winning WINLINE9, Tesla and FiRe.
The outlook is tougher for two teams. GamerLegion (5%) can reach only 32%, even with a FiRe title. JiJieHao (3%) can reach 88% by winning Drac and Retake13.
A Note on Reading the Table
The table lists the events each team plays and the result needed at each one. Some of these events overlap, so not every team can get what it needs. Many of them need the same title. For example, Stake5 and Tesla are marked as events where only one team can win.
Udknud also stressed one point. A team can still qualify with lesser results. The table shows only what is needed today for a fully clinched spot.
Why This Matters
In short, the table turns a confusing race into a clearer map. With eight seats locked and ten still open, every event from Drac on 19 October to GLuck on 31 October can change the picture. For fans of Eternal Fire, fnatic or Envy, it shows that hope still exists, even if the path is hard. For teams such as GamerLegion, it shows how narrow the road has become.
