On the eve of the final stage of European qualifiers, the battle for slots at the CS2 Major enters its decisive phase. Analyst Finn outlined the situations top teams in the region are facing: for some, it’s the last chance; for others, just a formality.
STABLE POSITIONS OF FAVORITES IN THE EUROPEAN QUALIFIER
The team currently in the most favorable position is SAW. A top-3 finish almost guarantees them a place at the Major. Even a fourth-place finish leaves good chances, though in that case it would depend on rival results. Their bracket looks quite convenient, so many already call SAW the main favorite of this race.
Virtus.pro can also be considered conditional favorites. Their key task is for MIBR to keep winning and hold off competitors. In that case, VP will have enough points to solidify their ranking. Their main risks remain SAW, OG, and Fnatic.
Also in stable positions are B8, Ninjas in Pyjamas, and PARIVISION. They practically don’t need to do anything: the main thing is to keep their roster intact without massive transfers.
FNATIC, OG, AND ECSTATIC: RISK ZONE
Several well-known clubs — Fnatic, OG, and ECSTATIC — find themselves in dangerous positions. For all three, the necessary condition is to win the tournament and for SAW to fail simultaneously. If the Portuguese club finishes in the top 3, their chances drop sharply.
ECSTATIC’s situation is especially difficult: even a victory doesn’t guarantee a spot due to possible recalculations of head-to-head results (H2H). This means the team could win the event yet still be left out because of fine mathematical details.
9INE: ONLY A CHAMPIONSHIP CAN SAVE THEM FROM FAILURE
For 9INE, everything depends on one factor — the title. Even early victories over SAW will help only partially, because without a championship, the door to the Major remains closed. In case of their loss, chances go to others: Virtus.pro, M8, and even Fnatic, if they manage to win the tournament.
M8 LEFT WITHOUT CONTROL OVER THEIR OWN DESTINY
M8’s situation looks almost hopeless. They need MIBR to stop winning and for other competitors not to overtake them in the rankings. In other words — everything depends on outside results. Analysts call this scenario a “game of hope,” since M8 themselves have very few resources left.
What do EU 🇪🇺 teams need to occur for their VRS and Major hopes.
Take with a pinch of salt as this could end up as very thin margins.
Down to the wire. pic.twitter.com/GCEzRYLtZ2
— Finn (@MischiefCS2) October 3, 2025
COMMUNITY ON THE TEAMS’ CHANCES
The community has split into two camps. Some criticize the complexity of the system and the absurdity of a situation where even a victory doesn’t guarantee qualification. Others focus on SAW, who have become the main irritant: their defeats open the way for other clubs, meaning many fans are literally “hatewatching” their matches.
M8 fans are openly desperate: the team relies more on others’ results than on their own game. Meanwhile, Virtus.pro supporters see in the current chaos a chance for their favorite organization to secure a top position.
The ranking situation has sparked a real storm of discussion in the community.
Frank H (@LegacyofFrank):
I found the MIBR situation unable to separate M8 and VP. Both should be in red. Both cooked.
Champion of Champions Tour CS2 (@CCT_CS):
MIBR plays for the Americas region, not EU.
KHALUMANN (@KHALUMANN):
Could you please explain why M8 can only hope? I thought the cutoff was October 6th…
Francisco Pedreño (@ChicagoF):
So everybody hatewatching SAW?
Lounet (@Lounet_8):
Let’s just cancel Fragadelphia at this point ok?
riapsenN – Boston 2018 Enjoyer (@riapsen):
Aw man, I really wanted M8 to make it.
RANKING CHAOS: MAJOR 2025 WILL BE DRAMATIC
The European qualifier for the CS2 Major is becoming as unpredictable as possible. While SAW and Virtus.pro can be considered favorites, OG, Fnatic, ECSTATIC, and 9INE are balancing on the edge. M8, meanwhile, are left as spectators, praying for other results.
Ahead lie the decisive matches that will put the final dots on the “i.” But one thing is already clear: the CS2 Major 2025 will not be without dramatic stories, surprises, and major disappointments.
