StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 continues its opening day with a matchup where the difference between the teams looks clear on paper. fnatic — a legendary organisation, now fielding a top-30 roster led by blameF and KRIMZ — enter the event as solid favourites to at least reach Stage 2. RED Canids, a roster from the deeper layers of the Brazilian region, win through grit and fire, but mostly against mid-tier opposition. And in a Bo1 format, an underdog always has a chance — but as shox told us exclusively, the level gap here is simply too big.
Current Form & Context
- fnatic — structure, discipline, and stability in key roles
fnatic arrive at the Major after a volatile period, but with visible improvement in all the areas that matter. Their win over MIBR (2–0) and competitive maps against Aurora and FlyQuest indicate that the team has finally found its foundation:
- blameF is the engine: 1.22 rating, 87+ ADR, almost flawless mid-round decision-making.
- KRIMZ adds LAN composure: strong clutches, stability in late rounds.
- jamba, jackasmo, and fEAR give fnatic early-round tempo and consistent opening duels.
The key trait of fnatic is structure. They do not play random Counter-Strike — and that makes them naturally strong in Bo1 environments.
- RED Canids — big heart, small stability
RED Canids fight hard, but their gameplay is extremely inconsistent. Recent matches show the pattern clearly:
- losses to Yawara and Keyd Stars,
- a win over MIBR Academy,
- shaky maps against lower-tier Brazilian teams.
Strengths:
- venomzera in peak form (1.15 rating, elite micro-duels)
- history capable of taking over halves on T-side
- kawze & drop create momentum swings
However, RED play heavily off individual moments rather than a structured system. Against fnatic — a team that reads early rounds well — this becomes a huge disadvantage.
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Shox’s Take — Exclusive Insight
Counter-Strike legend shox summed up his view of this match in a short but accurate way:
I will pick Fnatic. Too many gaps in level. Maybe RED Canids can upset in a Bo1, but fnatic should take it.
His opinion highlights the core issue: the gap is not only in ranking, but in tempo control, decision-making, and tactical quality.
Road to the Major
fnatic enter the event after:
- a 2–0 win over MIBR,
- competitive games against GamerLegion and Aurora,
- stable CT sides on Inferno, Mirage, and Ancient.
Their main strength: they do not crumble under pressure — even when losing, fnatic keep a coherent game plan.
RED’s road was turbulent:
- extremely sensitive to early-round tempo,
- frequent losses in eco/force rounds,
- uncomfortable vs structured European teams.
Their strength is unpredictability. Their weakness is everything else when facing a Tier-1-style game.
Map Pool & Veto Analysis (Bo1, last 3 months)
- Dust2: fnatic 42% | RED —
- Mirage: fnatic 65% | RED 53%
- Inferno: fnatic 56% | RED 40%
- Nuke: fnatic — | RED 76%
- Train: fnatic 65% | RED 20%
- Overpass: fnatic 44% | RED 33%
- Ancient: fnatic 77% | RED 58%
Likely bans:
- fnatic remove Nuke — RED’s 76% WR and comfort make it an auto-ban.
- RED Canids remove Ancient — fnatic’s 77% WR turns it into a dangerous pick.
Most probable Bo1 map: Mirage or Inferno — maps where fnatic’s structure and mid-round composure give them a clear advantage, while RED lack the tactical depth to challenge consistently.
Key Duels
- blameF vs venomzera
The duel of the two most stable players. blameF has the game sense; venomzera brings raw aim.
- KRIMZ vs history
The veteran anchor vs the aggressive Brazilian. If history heats up early, RED can stay competitive.
- jambo vs chayJESUS
Entry-style clash. jambo is more consistent; chayJESUS more unpredictable.
VRS Impact — important opening points
fnatic (#22, 1417 pt)
- +9 pt if they win
- –26 pt if they lose
RED Canids (#67, 1068 pt)
- +44 pt if they win
- –4 pt if they lose
For fnatic, this is a must-win. For RED — it’s an opportunity for the biggest upset of Round 1.
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Prediction
fnatic and RED Canids differ in almost every key dimension: structure, trading efficiency, economy management, defensive discipline, and LAN composure. RED can win through emotion, momentum streaks or a lucky force buy — but over the course of a full map, fnatic simply have far more tools. As shox summarised:
Fnatic should win. The level gap is too big.
RED Canids can create some intrigue, but fnatic are expected to control the match from start to finish.
Expected Score: fnatic 13–7 RED Canids
