With StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2025 and FISSURE Playground #2 completed, the race for the Budapest Major 2025 is entering its final phase. Most of the qualifying spots are already decided, but a handful of teams still remain on the bubble with only a few tournaments left that can influence the VRS standings. The cutoff for invites is October 6, leaving just two weeks for teams to make their last push.
How VRS Changed the Value of Online Matches
One of the defining factors in this cycle has been the way Valve’s ranking system treats online tournaments. The VRS is calculated in two steps: first, a starting value is assigned based on bounty, LAN results, and opponent network; then, an adjustment is applied for each match played. The problem is that every update recalculates old matches based on the team’s new starting value.
For teams that grind dozens of online events, this recalculation becomes a trap. Victories that once boosted their standing begin to count for less after a team climbs higher in the rankings, while defeats are punished more severely. The more matches a team has played in the past, the more points it can lose when the system retroactively adjusts results. This has led to scenarios where endless online grinding not only fails to pay off but actively harms a team’s chances.
In practice, this means online tournaments contribute very little upward momentum but can strip away dozens of points after each loss. As a result, more and more organizations are shifting their focus to LANs and only entering online qualifiers that directly lead to top-tier championships. The system has effectively devalued online play and punished teams that overcommit to the grind.
Remaining Tournaments
Only a few events remain before Valve locks the invites:
- ESL Pro League Season 22 Stage 1 (September 28 – October 2)
- Birch Cup (September 26 – 28)
- Fragadelphia Blocktober 2025 (October 2 – 5)
- FERJEE Rush 2025 (September 27 – 30) – A Brazilian LAN, serving as the final chance for local teams to influence the rankings.
Europe
At the very top, the Stage 3 picture is fully settled.
- Stage 3 (locked in): Vitality, Spirit, Falcons, G2
These four are mathematically safe and will head to Budapest without any risk. Their dominance leaves them untouchable, and the focus has already shifted to Major preparation.
Stage 2 is also extremely stable.
- Stage 2 (locked in): MOUZ, Aurora Gaming, NAVI, Astralis, 3DMAX
- Stage 1 (safe margin): FaZe, Liquid
MOUZ, NAVI, Astralis, and 3DMAX are fully secure. Aurora Gaming are also listed above 99.9%, but simulations suggest their position is much more delicate than the raw number implies. The gap between them and MOUZ is estimated at fewer than five points, meaning small fluctuations in head-to-head recalculations could shift probabilities. Still, the practical expectation is that Aurora qualify through Stage 2.
The battle truly begins inside Stage 1.
- Stage 1 (bubble zone): GamerLegion, Ninjas in Pyjamas, Virtus.pro, Heroic, SAW
All of them hover between 50 and 90 percent, where one poor showing could decide everything. Heroic’s decline remains the biggest surprise: a team once in the global top five now risks failing to reach Budapest.
On the razor’s edge sits B8.
- Stage 1 (last spot, ~51%): B8
Their performance at ESL Pro League will determine everything.
Below this line, the picture is bleak.
- Stage 1 (mathematical hopes only): BetBoom, Fnatic, OG, BIG
- Stage 1 (0.1% or lower): ECSTATIC, PARIVISION, Team Venom, ENCE, 9INE
Some squads technically register probabilities of 0.1 percent or lower, but in practice their path to Budapest is already closed.
Americas
Stage 3 is already decided.
- Stage 3 (locked in): FURIA, paiN
Both teams secured their places early and stand far above the rest of the region. Their strong LAN results ensure safe passage to Budapest.
Stage 2 is also stable.
- Stage 2 (locked in): NRG, Legacy
These two squads accumulated enough points over the summer to guarantee their qualification.
The real tension is in Stage 1.
- Stage 1 (bubble zone): M80, Imperial, MIBR, Passion UA, Wildcard
Their qualification depends almost entirely on the upcoming Fragadelphia Blocktober and FERJEE Rush events. In the Americas, where the competition is shallower, a single strong LAN run can flip the table completely. That volatility makes Stage 1 the most unpredictable category in this region.
Below the bubble, the picture is essentially closed.
- Stage 1 (0.1% or lower): other minor squads in the circuit
Some names technically remain in the ranking system, but their odds are negligible, and they will not be a factor in Budapest.
Asia
Asia is by far the most settled region.
- Stage 3 (locked in): The MongolZ
- Stage 2 (locked in): TYLOO
- Stage 1 (locked in): Lynn Vision
These three are confirmed representatives, each locked into their respective stage.
Behind them, several other names are still listed.
- Stage 1 (still present but unlikely): FlyQuest, The Huns, Rare Atom
They remain in Stage 1 positions, but with no LANs left to play before the cutoff, their chances of improving further are almost nonexistent.
At the very bottom, the theoretical outsiders.
- Stage 1 (0.1% or lower): Chinggis Warriors and other minor squads
Although they appear in the system, their path is effectively shut. Without tournaments remaining, they cannot influence their standing.
Final Thoughts
The picture for Budapest is almost complete, but the last two weeks still matter. For teams at the top, the job is done; they can already begin preparing for the Major. For those clinging to the edge of qualification, Birch Cup and Fragadelphia Blocktober are the last, desperate battlegrounds. With VRS punishing overextended schedules and online grinding, the message has become clear: only the right wins, in the right places, will carry weight. By October 6, the cutoff will arrive, and the line between triumph and heartbreak will be drawn.
