VRS analyst Jesper “Udknud” Larsen has shared an early prediction for the European race to the PGL Singapore Major. He mapped out how the region’s 18 available spots are likely to be filled . His model runs a simulation of 50,000 hypothetical seasons. That equals 67.7 million individual matches. The simulation plays out every result through November 2nd to estimate each team’s qualification chances.
This matters because half the field is already close to settled. The other half is still a genuine fight. Larsen’s projection shows nine EU spots are more or less taken. The remaining nine spots are still up for grabs. Clear favorites have emerged for most of them, however.
Why History Says Stay Cautious
Simulation models can look precise. Recent history shows how quickly things can change, though. Larsen pointed out that FaZe held roughly 95% safe odds at this same point last season. Meanwhile, BIG and SINNERS had almost no chance, according to those same models. In the end, that expectation flipped completely. Larsen calls it a historically bad chain of results for a team with that level of invites.
That example sets the tone for reading the current numbers. Large sample sizes smooth out surprises on average. Individual teams can still defy the odds in either direction, though.
The Current Top of the Table
Spirit lead the table with a qualification chance above 99.9%. Falcons sit at 99.9%, and MOUZ also clears 99.9%. FUT match that figure at 99.9% as well. Natus Vincere follow at 99.4%, and Vitality hold 98.9%. G2 sit at 99.4%, Aurora at 98.4%, and BetBoom round out the group at 94.8%. Larsen considers these nine teams essentially locked in for the Major.
The race tightens considerably below them. FaZe currently hold 84.6%, Astralis sit at 84.2%, and PARIVISION follow at 81.6%. B8 come in at 76.9%, Magic at 72.5%, and BIG at 72.0%. GamerLegion hold 68.3%, Inner Circle sit at 56.5%, and Alliance close out the projected top 18 at 55.3%. Just outside that line, Ninjas in Pyjamas hold a 40.0% chance. Luminosity follow at 31.1%, 3DMAX at 29.4%, HOTU at 26.9%, and HEROIC at 23.8% among the closest chasers still hoping to break in.
One detail needs clarification. Larsen noted that his “Likely” column actually shows each team’s probable global ranking range. It does not show their likely position within the EU standings specifically. He plans to fix this in future updates for better EU-specific context.
The BC.Game Wildcard
BC.Game stands out as a special case among the lower-ranked teams. Larsen has flagged this team in his broader VRS coverage too. The model gives them only a 1.0% qualification chance right now. This figure comes with a warning, though: BC.Game simply lacks competitive data so far. That means the model’s read on them stays uncertain and could underrate their real potential. A win streak in ranked matches could quickly boost their odds. A run of losses could just as quickly end their chances altogether. Larsen calls this situation brutal, since a handful of results can swing everything for teams like this.
Why This Race Still Matters
Larsen’s early model sends a clear message. The top nine EU teams should qualify safely. That group includes Spirit, Falcons, MOUZ, FUT, Natus Vincere, Vitality, G2, Aurora, and BetBoom. Nobody expects a repeat of last season’s FaZe collapse among them. The remaining nine spots stay genuinely competitive, however. Teams like FaZe, Astralis, PARIVISION, and BIG hold solid but not guaranteed positions.
Fans should expect at least one or two surprises among the lower-probability teams. At the same time, a few squads currently sitting in the 60 to 85 percent range will likely fall short. Many matches still remain before November 2nd. The picture for Singapore will keep shifting as a result. This early snapshot from Udknud’s simulation model marks only the starting point of that story.
