Team Spirit, MOUZ, and Team Vitality remain the safest bets to reach the PGL Singapore Major. However, the road has turned rough for other well-known names. FaZe Clan, BIG, and GamerLegion have all seen their qualification chances drop in the latest forecast.
Why does this matter? Because the picture is finally becoming clear. For months, fans could only guess which teams would make it. Now, with qualifiers wrapping up and invites announced, the numbers are starting to tell a real story. As a result, some fanbases are celebrating, while others are bracing for disappointment.
Background on the VRS Model
Analyst Mischief publishes regular Valve Ranking System (VRS) forecasts for the European and Americas region. The latest update, dated September 10, 2026, uses the OpenVRS run. The author stresses that this remains a forecast, not a final result.
In a statement accompanying the update, Mischief explained the shift in tone. Events such as BLAST and FISSURE have reshaped the race in recent weeks. “FaZe, BIG & GL suffer disappointment,” the analyst wrote, adding that invites and qualifier results have “brought a clearer picture, and heartbreak to some.” Thunderpick (TP) invites, still pending, are expected to have a major impact going forward.
The Core of the Forecast
Six teams currently sit in the top tier, each with a 99.99% chance of qualifying. These are Team Spirit, MOUZ, Team Vitality, G2 Esports, FUT Esports, and Team Falcons, with expected final rankings spread between 1st and 9th place. Even so, the model notes these positions are not fully guaranteed, since sample size and calendar changes could still shift results.
Below them, a second group is fighting for a firm place. Aurora Gaming leads this tier at 96.9%, followed by Natus Vincere at 94.4%. BetBoom Team climbed to 92.3%, a gain the model links directly to results at FISSURE. B8 sits at 88.7% after surviving what the forecast calls “the absolute gauntlet” of the Beijing qualifiers, despite a loss to 1w Team. Alliance jumped to 83.4%, helped by strong FPG3 results, while Astralis holds 80.5% following a difficult loss to 5stars, though its calendar remains stacked with upcoming events.
Further down, the race turns tighter and less certain. IC Esports rose to 79.0%, while Magic climbed to 78.3% on the back of strong recent form. FaZe Clan, meanwhile, dropped twice in a row to 69.9%. According to the notes, the team’s FPG3 results have been inconsistent, and much now depends on the rest of its calendar. 1w Team improved to 61.5%, while PARIVISION slipped to 59.7%. BIG suffered the steepest fall in this group, down to 47.3%, following losses in the Beijing qualifiers.
Outside the qualification zone, several teams are pushing to break in. HEROIC leads this group at 38.7% after solid results at Thunderpick, Beijing, and Bucharest qualifiers. HOTU follows at 36.3%, while 3DMAX rose to 31.5% after committing to more offline events. GamerLegion, however, fell sharply to 19.9%. The forecast points to a lack of LAN commitments as the main reason, noting that the team could benefit from a small results boost.
Related Notes and Wider Context
The forecast also flags a broader trend across the region. According to the notes, many teams are clustering around the same high-risk events, which is thinning out the points available and creating what the author describes as a “reverse game theory situation.” This dynamic is helping teams with stronger calendars, as well as lower-ranked teams like FaZe and PARIVISION on the fringe of qualification, while doing less to separate the pack overall.
A separate note addresses a minor data issue in 1w Team’s simulation, related to potential event overlap with PGL and MSCW qualifiers. The author clarifies this does not meaningfully affect the team’s predicted percentage.
Why This Matters Going Forward
The gap between qualifying and missing out at the PGL Singapore Major is narrowing for several teams. FaZe, BIG, and GamerLegion now face real pressure heading into the final qualification window. Meanwhile, teams like BetBoom, Alliance, and HEROIC are showing that late-season form can still reshape the standings. With Thunderpick invites still to be confirmed, the next few weeks are likely to bring further changes before the picture is fully settled.
