The race for Europe’s VRS slots at the PGL Singapore Major has a new update. Analyst Mischief has published a fresh forecast, and it shows clear movement across the standings. 100 Thieves have moved up, NiP have survived a tough stretch, and B8 and NAVI are under pressure.
This update matters because the margin for error is shrinking. According to Mischief, quite a few teams cannot afford to go 0-3 at PGL. One bad event could now decide who goes to the Major and who stays home.
How the VRS race reached this point
Mischief updates the Europe VRS forecast regularly. The model estimates each team’s chance of making the Major and the range of ranking spots it may finish in. It also depends on the assumed level of event coverage and the scheduled tournaments that actually take place.
The latest version was run on the morning of 16 October 2026 (BST), after NiP beat Liquid 2-1. As a result, the numbers reflect the most recent results at Stake Pulse Beat III. The forecast is also available on openvrs.uk, and Mischief says he uploads it there every day.
The new picture of the forecast
At the top, six teams are listed at 99.99% for Stage 3: Team Vitality, MOUZ, Team Spirit, Aurora Gaming, Team Falcons and FUT Esports. Mischief expects the fight for the Stage 3 slots to be mostly between Aurora, Falcons, FUT and G2. However, Astralis, BetBoom and other PGL Masters teams still have outside chances.
G2 Esports and Astralis are also at 99.99% for Stage 2. Even so, Mischief adds a big asterisk to Astralis. If FUT do not play five games with their new roster, a roster clash could stop Astralis from receiving a Major invite. HLTV has confirmed that FUT might attend an open LAN to avoid this problem. However, all showcased events can no longer be signed up to, so time may have run out.
The rest of the Stage 2 group looks fairly safe. 1w Team have a 97.60% chance, BetBoom Team have 94.56% and HEROIC have 91.04%. Ninjas in Pyjamas are at 84.78%, and their position has improved. Mischief notes that NiP’s odds are great if they finish top 3 at Pulse, at about 90%. However, a fourth-place finish would be very dangerous and could drop them to around 50-60%.
The Stage 1 group is much less secure. FaZe Clan have a 74.74% chance, while PARIVISION have fallen to 72.26% after a 0-2 exit from Thunderpick. Nemiga Gaming sit at 64.66% and have only one event left, PGL Masters. 100 Thieves, B8 and Natus Vincere follow at 59.36%, 59.34% and 55.16%.
100 Thieves made a big jump. Mischief says Pulse III is a kingmaker event and that their win over Liquid is massive in terms of points. They still have a critical game against Sangal, but a win at Pulse would lift their odds to about 90%. B8, meanwhile, have dropped. They have only one event left, and the field is packed with contenders. Therefore, a bad event could cost them the Major.
Teams that are still outside the qualification zone
Below the cut-off, the picture is wide open. Magic lead the group at 43.32%, followed by Luminosity Gaming at 40.12% and Alliance at 37.00%. Inner Circle have 30.40%, BIG have 27.98% and Fnatic have 22.40%. ENVY follow at 15.80% and HOTU at 11.92%.
For many of these teams, the next events carry a lot of weight. Magic have two events left, Stake5 and 1w PC2, and likely need a top 3 at both or a win at one of them. Alliance need a top 2 finish at 1w PC2. Fnatic would be in a good spot with a top 3 at both Stake5 and 1w PC2. Inner Circle need a big showing at Stake5 after exiting the groups at one of the highest-impact events left.
Calendar clashes and expert notes
The schedule adds another layer. Mischief has assumed that Luminosity and Alliance will prioritize Relog Tesla. A split between the two would hurt NiP, he says, while a focus on HyperX would hurt NAVI.
NAVI face a special clash. If they go 3-2 in the Swiss stage, they must forfeit all their HyperX matches. This changes their risk and reward. Their odds after a 2-3 or 1-3 result would improve, but Mischief says making the Major that way is still very unlikely. He also notes a travel clash with Beijing, which they may skip if the Major is within reach.
Mischief also has a message for PGL. In his words, “Quite a few teams cannot afford to go 0-3 at PGL.” He names TYLOO, MongolZ, Navi and Nemiga, and expects an amazing crunch time event.
What this means for the Major
The latest VRS update shows a race that is far from settled. The top group looks secure, but the middle and lower groups depend on a few high-impact events. NiP, 100 Thieves, B8 and NAVI must perform at PGL and Pulse, while teams like Magic, Luminosity and Alliance still have a real chance to move up. Finally, the final standings may depend on small details, such as roster clashes and event schedules, as much as on match results.
