HEROIC has posted one of the biggest jumps of the season in the race toward the PGL Singapore Major. The team won its match in Stake Pulse 2, and its qualification odds rose sharply as a result. Analyst Udknud shared the update in a detailed late-night post covering the current state of the European Race to Top 18.
This shift matters because the EU qualification race is unusually open right now. Only nine teams currently hold a safe spot. That leaves nine places still up for grabs, and teams anywhere from 9th to 24th could realistically gain or lose a spot before the cutoff. According to Udknud, this is the most open race at this stage of the season so far.
How The Standings Are Calculated
The Race to Top 18 EU standings come from a match odds model called Calibrated VRS. The model projects each team’s qualification chances using 50,000 simulated seasons, equal to 46.1 million matches, played out to November 2nd. This latest simulation ran on 26 September 2026 at 23:11.
The model tracks several factors for each team. These include qualify percentage, assumed strength rank, weekly percentage-point change, stage invite likelihood, and remaining LAN win requirements. Together, these numbers give a live picture of where every EU team stands heading into the Major.
This Week’s Biggest Movers
Several teams saw major swings in their qualification odds this week. The biggest changes were:
- HEROIC: +36.0 percentage points, now at 74.8%
- 3DMAX: +19.9 percentage points, now at 50.6%
- 100 Thieves: +14.5 percentage points, now at 26.2%
- Alliance: −23.2 percentage points, now at 57.7%
Meanwhile, Udknud pointed to four teams currently sitting in a strong position within the wider field:
- Natus Vincere
- Astralis
- FaZe
- HEROIC
However, the analyst was clear that this does not guarantee safety. Any team ranked between 9th and 24th could still move up or down. In addition, teams further down the list are not entirely out of the picture. GamerLegion and Ninjas in Pyjamas, for example, could return to contention this week if they perform well in the 1win event.
Comments From Analyst Udknud
Udknud framed the update as a deep dive for viewers following the race closely. In the post, the analyst wrote: “Still only 9 teams are safe. 9 spots are still to play for, the most open race we have had at this point.” Udknud also noted that GamerLegion and Ninjas in Pyjamas “can get back into contention already this week with more success in the 1win event.”
What This Means For The EU Major Race
According to Udknud’s update, the EU race for the PGL Singapore Major remains far from settled. HEROIC’s rise and Alliance’s drop show how quickly qualification odds can shift within a single week. As a result, the next set of results will carry significant weight for teams sitting in the middle of the pack. With nine spots still open and the simulation running through November 2nd, fans should expect more movement before the Race to Top 18 is finalized.
