MATCH 2: B8 vs. TYLOO
B8 are the second-most dangerous team in Stage 1 behind GL, and they face a TYLOO side that is genuinely unpredictable, which makes this match more interesting than the odds suggest. The Ukrainian roster, built around npl, kensizor, esenthial, s1zzi, and alex666, are capable of beating teams well above their ranking. They dispatched FUT and The MongolZ at recent events, and at CAC 2026 they finished 5th-6th, fighting their way through a loaded bracket before losing a triple-overtime thriller to MOUZ.
TYLOO, however, are no pushovers. The Chinese side pulled off one of the genuine upsets of CAC 2026, stunning MOUZ 13-7 on Inferno in their opening match. Their reading of that specific map, a rampaging 10-2 T-side, caught MOUZ completely off guard. That upset firepower is real, and the +350 odds to advance from Stage 1 reflect more than just wishful thinking from their fanbase. But B8 have the roster depth to absorb a bad map start and come back, which is exactly what they did against NIP at CAC. B8 should win this, but TYLOO in a BO1 is never a free round.
MATCH 3: HEROIC vs. Sharks
This is one of the cleaner calls on the board, even if HEROIC’s 2026 has been as much about rebuilding an identity as it has been about results. HEROIC come in with a completely restructured roster from their chaotic 2025, which ended with LNZ leaving for Liquid’s NertZ swap, SunPayus heading to G2, and pretty much every piece of the puzzle shuffling. The current five, xfl0ud, nilo, susp, Chr1zN, and yxngstxr, are united under new IGL Chr1zN and coach TOBIZ, the latter of whom was described in Reddit as “a killer choice” when the signing was announced. They are ranked #23, which reflects that the roster changes have taken time to gel.
Their recent form on individual maps like Mirage and Inferno has looked patchy, but HEROIC’s structure is usually more than enough to handle the lower tier of Stage 1. They open as -205 favourites against Sharks, and that spread is justified. Sharks are a Brazilian side making their first Major with this core, carrying talent in the form of gafolo, koala, maxxkor, rdnzao, and doc. The trio recently penned new contracts through 2030, showing the organisation’s commitment to the project. But being committed to the project is different from being ready for a Major stage. Against a structured European side in HEROIC, this likely ends in a comfortable win for the Danes.
MATCH 4: BetBoom vs. Gaimin Gladiators
BetBoom are the wildcard of this entire Stage 1. When they are firing, they are genuinely capable of beating top-tier teams, and they knocked off Team Vitality in 2026, which is about as impressive a scalp as you can pick up outside of a Major. The problem is that BetBoom’s consistency record is enough to give even their own supporters a stomach ache.
Photo Copyright by BetBoom
The roster around Boombl4, zorte, S1ren, FL4MUS, and Magnojez carries real firepower, but there has been ongoing uncertainty about their exact lineup heading into Cologne. When ESL locked the Major rosters, BetBoom declined to confirm their lineup, with the organisation saying they couldn’t share information and needed to wait for official announcements. The squad originally qualified using stand-ins, and zorte’s permanent addition replaced ArtFr0st during the season. Some instability heading into a Major is never ideal.
Still, even at less than full coherence, BetBoom are heavy favourites against Gaimin Gladiators, and that line holds up. Gaimin Gladiators are arguably the most intriguing story in Stage 1 from a narrative perspective. The roster includes Brazilian veteran Fernando “fer” Alvarenga, alongside HEN1, NEKIZ, Luken, and JOTA, a genuinely experienced, primarily Brazilian-heritage lineup. The community loves the storyline. Fer, one of the most iconic players in Brazilian CS history, still competing at a Major in 2026 is the kind of thing the game was built for. Some bold community analysts are genuinely floating Gaimin as an upset pick on the basis that fer’s leadership and the team’s structured play could cause problems for BetBoom’s volatile style in a BO1. BetBoom’s ceiling still wins out here, but if you’re looking for the upset special of Round 1, Gaimin vs. BetBoom is your most live candidate.
MATCH 5: BIG vs. Team Liquid
This is the marquee match of Round 1 from a pure narrative standpoint, and it is genuinely competitive. BIG’s story entering Cologne is one of resurrection. After spending 2025 effectively locked out of tier-1 invites, their Valve Regional Standings points were too low to get into the big events, so they made the calculated decision to import blameF from Denmark in early 2026. The choice paid off immediately. BIG won three tournaments in the first part of the year, two of them on LAN, and crucially defeated FaZe in the grand final of HLC Belgrade PRO to clinch their Major qualification. That FaZe, a team that had made 16 consecutive Major appearances, missed the roster cut because of BIG beating them was a moment that sent shockwaves through the community.
The roster of tabseN, JDC, faveN, blameF, and gr1ks has real depth now. Both FaveN and JDC have been firing on all cylinders lately, but it is blameF who will be tasked to carry this squad over the horizon. However, the biggest factor for Round 1 against Liquid might simply be, they are at home. BIG play a Major in Germany, in front of a German crowd, with tabseN as the emotional anchor of the squad. The home advantage at Cologne is not just a cliché. The BIG community will show up vocally, and for tabseN in particular, this is a moment that matters.
Team Liquid, meanwhile, are in a difficult place. Their IEM Atlanta run ended in group stage elimination, knocked out first by Astralis, then dismantled 9-13 and 6-13 by GamerLegion in a 0-2 series. IGL siuhy was candid about the state of the squad after Atlanta: he said the team is going through “a very tough moment,” and admitted that the gap between practice results and official match performance has become a significant psychological barrier.
The roster has star power. NAF remains one of the most reliable two-way players in NA CS, and EliGE’s return to Liquid brought much-needed aggression. The mid-season swap of NertZ for malbsMd added creative firepower. But with Liquid currently sitting at #45 and carrying visible confidence issues into a BO1 Major opener against a fired-up home team, BIG should be favoured. The community’s prediction leaning, BIG 3-0, Liquid 1-3 for Stage 1 outcomes, reflects the genuine belief that BIG have the momentum while Liquid is still searching for theirs.
MATCH 6: M80 vs. Lynn Vision
M80 are a solid, unremarkable American squad at this tournament, reliable enough to navigate a Stage 1 Swiss bracket without producing anything spectacular. The roster of slaxz-, Swisher, s1n, JBa, and Lake represents the kind of experienced, structured play that tends to accumulate wins in best-of-one formats against opponents who have never been to a Major before.
Lynn Vision are the Chinese representative, looking to replicate the same success from the Austin Major. Westmelon, z4KR, Starry, EmiliaQAQ, and C4LLM3SU3 are a skilled regional team, but the step up from Chinese regional competition to international Major stage is enormous, and their CAC 2026 showing, finishing 9th-12th with an early exit, did not suggest they are yet ready to punch at M80’s level. M80 should get this done.
MATCH 7: MIBR vs. THUNDERdOWNUNDER
MIBR are one of the more interesting teams to analyse in Stage 1, because the community’s read on them is split right down the middle. The forum discussion has been brutal about this squad in the past, with one post saying, “apart from one talented player insani, MIBR is absolute garbage,” following a CAC group stage result. But that take may be out of date. The current MIBR, LNZ, brnz4n, insani, venomzera, and kl1m, is genuinely a different-looking team from the one that struggled in the first half of 2026. At CAC 2026, they went through PARIVISION, 3DMAX, and B8 on their way to a semi-final finish. It was insani, the 22-year-old Brazilian, who was the standout for the team, and will be the X-factor going into the match-up.
The roster change that brought in Russian-born kl1m has added a different dimension. MIBR’s form guide shows three wins in their last five, suggesting the squad may be peaking at the right moment. THUNDERdOWNUNDER are the Oceanic representative, carrying dexter, Liazz, aliStair, asap, and TjP, several former Renegades and Australian CS veterans who know how to compete but face the fundamental problem of limited international LAN exposure. The gap in raw firepower and preparation between MIBR and THUNDERdOWNUNDER is significant. But often what matters more than others is which team can hold onto their nerves better. It’s a Major, afterall.
MATCH 8: SINNERS vs. FlyQuest
Both teams are in the bottom half of Stage 1 from a ranking perspective, SINNERS ranked around #33 on the Valve standings, FlyQuest below them, but SINNERS have the better recent results and a more coherent structure heading in. The Czech/Slovak core of beastik, SHOCK, MoDo, kisserek, and stressarN has been climbing steadily through European qualification all year. They are not a team with obvious star power, but they are organised, they are disciplined, and in a best-of-one format that rewards preparation over flair, those traits matter.
FlyQuest, jks, INS, Vexite, nettik, and story, are an Australian/international blend carrying some individual pedigree. jks, with real tier-1 experience, needs to steup up to be the difference maker, but the team’s broader form has been inconsistent. The community consensus heading in is SINNERS as comfortable favourites, and the odds reflect that.