NAVI’s fight for a spot at the next Major is becoming increasingly tense. A new separate page with chance calculations shows how unstable the team’s position currently remains before the final tournaments of the ranking cycle.
NAVI received only 45% chances
According to the current calculation, NAVI have a 45% chance of qualifying for the Major in Singapore. The system projects the team to finish around 21st place, while the main cutoff zone is around the top 18.
At the same time, NAVI’s chances are distributed across different stages: approximately 2.2% goes to Stage 3, 25.5% to Stage 2, and another 17.2% to Stage 1. In other words, the scenario of a direct and comfortable qualification currently looks much less likely than a fight for the lower qualifying positions.
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NAVI’s position in VRS continues to fall
In the current Valve Ranking, NAVI are only in 25th place. For a team that has consistently remained among the strongest in the world over the past years, this already creates a real risk of being left without the necessary number of points by the end of the ranking cycle.
The situation is also complicated by recent results. Over the last three months, NAVI have a 37.5% win rate, and among their latest matches, the team lost to MOUZ, Aurora, G2, and M80. Because of this, every next tournament and every win can seriously affect the final position.
Why 45% should not be treated as a final figure
At the same time, this forecast cannot yet be considered fully accurate. The system may still not include all future tournaments that will influence the distribution of VRS points before the final formation of the Major participant list.
Because of this, the 45% probability reflects the current model based on the available calendar. The appearance of new ranked tournaments, the results of NAVI’s competitors, and the team’s own performances could change this figure quite significantly.
The fight for the Major remains open
Right now, NAVI have found themselves in a situation where qualification can no longer be treated as a formality. The team needs strong results at the upcoming tournaments in order to climb back up the ranking and avoid depending on poor performances from competitors.
That is why the key number here is not 45% itself, but how close NAVI have come to the danger zone. The situation can still change before the end of the ranking race, but the team has less and less room for another series of early exits.
