Natus Vincere is on track to fall out of the top 20 in the Valve Regional Standings (VRS) for the first time in recent memory. According to analyst Udknud, this outcome is now essentially a fact, with a projected finish of around 25th place on the upcoming October 5th ranking.
This matters because NAVI is widely regarded as a top 20 team in terms of raw strength. However, the VRS system does not measure potential. It measures results. A season without a single win is therefore enough to send even a strong roster tumbling down the standings.
A Winless Season Takes Its Toll
The prediction comes shortly after NAVI’s defeat to MOUZ. That loss is simply the latest data point in a season where Natus Vincere has not recorded a single win. As a result, their VRS points have steadily eroded, even though their underlying team strength has not necessarily changed.
Udknud notes that this drop is not permanent by nature. If NAVI manages to win matches soon in their upcoming tier 1 events, they could climb back up the standings just as quickly as they fell. In addition, the team could still avoid the drop entirely if they enter Open LANs in Portugal or Sweden before the ranking update. For now, though, neither has been confirmed.
Three Invites Left and a Major Qualification Deadline
NAVI currently holds three remaining invites to tier 1 events. They will not gain any additional invites from the October 5th ranking. Two of those three events count directly toward Major qualification: EPL S24 and PGL Masters Bucharest 2026. The third, IEM Beijing, does not count for the Major. It still matters for NAVI’s future, though, since it feeds into the December and January rankings, which also determine tier 1 invites.
Regarding Major qualification, Udknud’s model sets a clear target. NAVI needs at least four wins combined across EPL S24 and PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 to qualify in most scenarios. Five or more wins would fully lock in qualification. Three wins, meanwhile, would only work in a small percentage of scenarios.
To illustrate how qualification could slip away, Udknud gives one example scenario. NAVI finishes 2-3 in EPL S24 and 1-3 in PGL Masters Bucharest 2026. That combination alone would be enough to miss the Major.
Udknud’s model puts NAVI’s qualification chances at 86 percent. However, he suggests a clearer benchmark: the number of wins needed. That 86 percent figure still assumes NAVI remains, in practice, a top 10 team.
Looking Beyond the Major: BLAST Open and PGL Cluj
Winning four to five or more matches would not only help NAVI’s Major chances. It would also likely secure their spot at BLAST Open 2027. This becomes especially relevant given that the team is set to miss out on the PGL Bucharest invite tied to the October ranking. Separately, qualifying for PGL Cluj in 2027 requires a top 14 global finish on the November ranking, which again would require four to five or more wins in NAVI’s two remaining events.
Why an Extra LAN Is Not a Realistic Backup Plan
One possible safety net would be entering an additional LAN event before the qualification cut-off. However, Udknud explains that NAVI already declined an invite to the Thunderpick World Championship, making it unlikely that they are planning to add another event now. Furthermore, scheduling deadlines are closing in. Since PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 falls right before the cut-off, there is no room to book a last-minute LAN afterward. Any decision to add an extra event would need to be made now, while NaVi is still counting on delivering results in their two scheduled tier 1 events.
A Tight Margin for Error
Udknud points out that NAVI is not alone in facing this dilemma. Every team outside the tier 1 bubble must weigh how much to play and which events to enter, since additional appearances can just as easily cost points as gain them. For NAVI specifically, though, the stakes are unusually high. A team that Udknud still classifies among the top 10 in reality now finds its Major qualification, its 2027 BLAST Open spot, and its future invite standing all resting on the outcome of just two events.
