There is only one week left until Valve distributes invites to IEM Cologne 2026, and right now the European race is entering its most exciting phase. Some slots are almost secured, but just below the safe cutoff begins a dense zone where a single strong tournament can completely reshape the picture.
The top of Europe is almost locked in
As of the final week of the qualification race in Europe, most of the top positions look nearly secured. In the projected Stage 3 zone are Vitality, NAVI, Aurora, PARIVISION, MOUZ, and Falcons, while Stage 2 currently includes Spirit, Astralis, FUT, G2, and GamerLegion. For most of these teams, the question is no longer qualification itself, but the stage from which they will enter the tournament.
The real tension starts below. This is where teams converge for whom every next match is not just a local result, but a direct impact on their Major chances. That is why the final week feels so important: the table is not yet finalized, and several teams can still either jump into qualification spots or drop out at the very last moment.
read more
Monte, B8, and NiP enter the decisive days with different margins
Among the teams to watch most closely right now are Monte, B8, and Ninjas in Pyjamas. Monte currently hold an 88.6% chance to qualify, and they still have an opportunity to earn important points at DraculaN Season 6, which runs from March 29 to April 2 in Bucharest. This means the Ukrainian roster enters the final week not in panic mode, but also not in a fully comfortable position.
For B8, the situation is much more tense: they are given a 44.5% chance, and on March 31 they begin their run at Parken Challenger Championship #3 in Copenhagen. This is a typical case where there is almost no room for error. If B8 want to push through the race, the Danish event must become not just another appearance, but a source of points that moves them closer to the safe zone.
NiP’s position is even more fragile — 25.1% chance. For them, Stake Ranked Episode 1, starting April 1 in Barcelona, will be crucial. At this stage, it is no longer a background event, but a direct survival tool in the Major race. If NiP fail to deliver a strong performance there, there will be almost no time left to recover their position.
The most notable surge right now belongs to Sinners
A separate storyline in this race is Sinners. About two weeks ago, this team looked more like a peripheral contender, but now their chances have jumped to 76.7%. This is one of the strongest late-cycle surges among all European teams.
The main reason for this rise is simple: Sinners delivered results at the right tournament and at the moment when it mattered most. That is why their case is so illustrative for the entire race. It shows that the final stretch in the VRS system is not only about long-term consistency, but also about the ability to seize the right moment while competitors hesitate or drop points.
The race for the lower slots will be the most intense
The densest zone right now is exactly where qualification spots meet elimination. Teams like BIG, 3DMAX, FaZe, B8, NiP, Alliance, and several others are clustered here, and this layer of the table looks the least stable. FaZe’s situation is particularly concerning, with only a 47.1% chance, despite recently being expected to sit much higher.
The key intrigue of the coming days comes down to three questions:
- whether Monte can secure their high, but not yet guaranteed, chance;
- whether B8 can turn Parken Challenger into a real breakthrough in the standings;
- whether NiP can use Stake Ranked as their final serious opportunity to return to the Major race.
That is exactly why the final week feels so packed. At the top of Europe, things are mostly clear, but below there is still enough chaos for one strong tournament to change the outcome of the entire campaign.
read more
One week before invites, the lower zone delivers the main drama
One week before invites to IEM Cologne 2026 are distributed, Europe enters the decisive stretch with two very different realities. At the top of the table, everything is almost settled, but below, an intense battle continues for the last qualification spots and favorable starting stages.
From a Ukrainian perspective, the main focus is clear: Monte still have a solid margin, but must secure it in Romania, while B8 face a much riskier, yet still viable, path through the tournament in Denmark. Against this backdrop, the rise of Sinners only reinforces the main rule of the final week: in the Major race, it is no longer the team that was strong earlier that wins — it is the team that secures points right now.
