Spirit and M80 meet in the 2-2 match of the ESL Pro League Season 24 group stage. The winner moves into the playoffs, and the loser goes home. Spirit lead the VRS in first place, while M80 sit 19th. The two teams have never played each other before.
Format & Tournament Specifics
This is an elimination match at ESL Pro League Season 24. The 2-2 pool decides who survives, so both teams must play at their best. Spirit are the clear favorites on paper. However, one bad map can still send them out. For M80, this is a big chance to beat the top team in the world and reach the playoffs.
Current Form
Spirit: dominant individually, but uneven in results
Spirit have beaten PARIVISION, ShindeN and MOUZ in recent series. However, they also lost 0:2 to 1win and MOUZ. As a result, their form is strong overall, but it is not flawless.
Recent results:
- Spirit 0:2 1win
- Spirit 0:2 MOUZ
- Spirit 2:1 PARIVISION
- Spirit 2:1 ShindeN
- Spirit 3:1 MOUZ
The key player is donk. He posts a 1.40 rating, 0.91 kills per round, 0.66 deaths per round, 76.1% KAST, a 1.46 multi-kill rating, +2.97% round swing and 93.6 ADR. His damage output and multi-kill numbers stand far above the rest of the server.
M80: a solid stretch with two clean losses
M80 beat Legacy, TYLOO and DENDELE, each time in three maps. Meanwhile, they lost 0:2 to BetBoom and MOUZ. Therefore, M80 can win close series, but they struggle against strong opposition.
Recent results:
- M80 2:1 Legacy
- M80 2:1 TYLOO
- M80 0:2 BetBoom
- M80 0:2 MOUZ
- M80 2:1 DENDELE
Their key player is slaxz-. He posts a 1.14 rating, 0.73 kills per round, 0.56 deaths per round, 75.6% KAST, a 0.98 multi-kill rating, +1.80% round swing and 72.2 ADR. He beats donk on deaths per round. However, donk leads on every other key stat, and the gap in rating, multi-kill rating and damage is large.
Head-to-Head
Spirit and M80 have never faced each other. Because of this, the map pool and recent form matter even more.
Map Pool & Veto
Win rate over the past 3 months (Spirit | M80):
- Cache: 50% (8 maps) | 71% (14 maps)
- Dust2: 71% (14 maps) | 50% (8 maps)
- Mirage: 44% (9 maps) | 36% (11 maps)
- Inferno: — (0 maps) | 45% (11 maps)
- Nuke: 67% (6 maps) | — (0 maps)
- Ancient: 90% (10 maps) | 56% (9 maps)
- Anubis: 86% (7 maps) | 50% (6 maps)
Expected veto: Spirit will likely ban Cache first, since M80 hold 71% there across 14 maps. In return, M80 have a clear reason to ban Ancient, where Spirit win 90% of their games over 10 maps.
After those bans, Spirit can pick Dust2, where they hold 71% on a large 14-map sample. Nuke is another option at 67%, and M80 have no recent games on it. On the other hand, M80 look most comfortable on Inferno, where they hold 45% and Spirit have no recent games. Anubis is also a danger for M80, as Spirit win 86% of their maps there. Therefore, Spirit have more safe maps, while M80 will have to rely on Inferno.
VRS forecast: Spirit currently have 1995 points and sit 1st. A win would lift them to 1995 + 11 = 2006 points. A loss would cost them 28 points, taking them to 1995 − 28 = 1967. Their place at the top would stay the same either way.
M80 have 1538 points and sit 19th. A win would move them to 1538 + 51 = 1589 points and 11th place. A loss would give 1538 − 2 = 1536 points, and they would stay 19th.
Prediction
Both teams enter this match under pressure, since a loss ends their ESL Pro League Season 24 run. M80 have real arguments. They beat three opponents in decider maps recently, and slaxz- is very hard to kill. In addition, they have a strong Cache record if Spirit fail to ban it.
Still, Spirit look like the better side here. Donk leads slaxz- on almost every key stat. Moreover, Spirit have strong numbers on Ancient, Anubis, Dust2 and Nuke, which gives them many safe maps. However, their 0:2 losses to 1win and MOUZ show that they can drop a series when they start slowly.
If Spirit remove Cache and control the map pool, they should secure a playoff spot. M80 will need to take Inferno and hope Spirit stumble.
Projected result: Spirit 2–0 M80
