The CS2 community is once again debating the upcoming Major after VRS analyst Finn (@MischiefCS2) released an updated simulation of the European race for IEM Cologne invites. The model is based on 115 million simulated matches and has already sparked strong reactions on Twitter/X. Finn revealed the calculations took around 2 hours and 30 minutes on 16 cores following a major hardware upgrade and codebase rewrite, forming the basis of the latest qualification probabilities.
Who Is Already “Safe”
According to the projections, seven teams currently have a 99% chance of qualifying for the Major:
- Team Vitality
- Team Falcons
- MOUZ
- PARIVISION
- Team Spirit
- Aurora Gaming
- Natus Vincere
For these teams, the scenario is simple: “chill.” In other words, avoid collapsing in the calendar, don’t skip critical invites, and maintain stable results.
Vitality, for example, is capped at 99% in the model. Finn clarified that probabilities are artificially capped due to factors that cannot be simulated (roster moves, event cancellations, sudden lineup changes). In reality, he suggested, Vitality likely has a 100% chance unless something unexpected happens.
The Tension Zone: Astralis, FaZe, G2
The most interesting battle begins just below the top tier.
- Astralis — 90.8%
- FaZe Clan — 89.6%
- G2 Esports — 83.2%
- FUT Esports — 77.4%
For Astralis, the model’s advice is blunt: “Don’t do anything stupid.” Simply avoid disastrous LAN performances.
FaZe need strong results at EPL LAN and in Rotterdam. G2 need to accept the Stake Ranked invite (and secure those points). FUT must perform well at EPL. This is where real risk begins — a single failed tournament could dramatically reshape the standings.
The 60% Danger Line
Below 70%, the race becomes unpredictable:
- GamerLegion — 69.7%
- Gentle Mates — 68.3%
- Team Liquid — 66.4%
- B8 — 65.0%
- Ninjas in Pyjamas — 59.7%
- BetBoom Team — 58.5%
For many of these teams, the model highlights one key factor: attending LAN events. Online points (BCOL) and BOFF (Bounty Offered — prize money counted toward rankings) can matter, but LAN participation is increasingly decisive. Finn noted that the “sea of open LANs” creates a kingmaking opportunity — teams with the right schedule can overtake competitors who choose poorly.
Outside the Qualification Line: Monte, 3DMAX, HEROIC
The lower section of the table generated the strongest reactions.
Teams currently not projected to qualify:
- Monte — 51.3%
- 3DMAX — 35.7%
- HEROIC — 34.1%
- BC.Game — 34.2%
- BIG — 33.4%
- HOTU — 25.7%
- Illuminar — 9.3%
- K27 — 8.4%
- SINNERS — 7.1%
- 100 Thieves — 3.7%
Monte sits right on the edge — 51% is essentially a coin flip. 3DMAX and HEROIC are in serious danger. SINNERS, as one fan joked, are at “7.1% and a dream.” 100 Thieves have just a 3.7% chance, and the model summarizes their path simply: “Win their games.”
What Does “Accept the Stake Invite” Mean?
One of the most discussed phrases in the thread was “accept the Stake invite.” This refers to Stake Ranked Episode 1, a LAN event that carries significant VRS ranking points. Accepting the invite gives teams a direct opportunity to earn points against competitors. Declining it effectively means voluntarily giving up ground in the Major race. For teams like G2, GamerLegion, or Monte, that decision could prove decisive.
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Why These Predictions Can Still Change
Finn emphasized that this is an initial model. It does not account for:
- roster moves,
- tournament cancellations,
- unexpected LAN withdrawals,
- newly formed lineups.
As team attendance is officially confirmed, the percentages are expected to stabilize.
Still, one thing is already clear: Europe’s Major race is shaping up to be one of the tightest in years. While the top seven look nearly untouchable, positions 8 through 16 are set to be decided by scheduling, LAN limits, and strategic decisions. The only question left: who will fall victim to the mathematical roulette?
