Artificial Intelligence simulated the playoff stage of StarLadder Budapest Major 2025 and reached a concrete conclusion regarding the champions. The model took into account the form of the teams in Stage 3, individual player statistics, map pool, and the projected path through the playoff bracket — and step by step, it calculated which teams have the highest chances to reach the final.
Quarterfinals — as AI sees them
Spirit vs Falcons
AI favors Spirit: the team advanced with a 3–0 score in Stage 3, confidently defeating FaZe, Liquid, and MOUZ, while Falcons several times balanced on the edge of elimination and made it further only in the last Bo3. Donk and sh1ro dominate the stats, whereas Falcons have only one player in the top-10 by rating — not enough against the current Spirit.
Vitality vs The MongolZ
In this matchup, the model chooses Vitality, relying on stability in results and history of head-to-head matches. The MongolZ may cause an upset, but Vitality have repeatedly shut them down in decisive series, and ZywOo at this Major once again performs at a level that is almost impossible for any Asian team to compensate.
MOUZ vs FaZe
According to AI, MOUZ look more cohesive specifically at this tournament: they go 3–1 without “living on the edge,” while FaZe stayed 1–2 for a long time and only broke through to the playoffs in the very last match. There is also the Budapest factor — a “home arena” for torzsi — which, in the algorithm’s view, shifts the balance toward MOUZ.
FURIA vs Natus Vincere
Here the model sees the clearest advantage: FURIA go 3–0, already destroyed NAVI on Nuke 13–2, and have several players among the top in Stage 3 ratings. NAVI’s experience keeps them in the game, but specifically at this tournament FURIA look far more stable and stronger in both form and map pool.
Semifinals — when small details decide everything
Spirit vs Vitality
In the Spirit–Vitality matchup, artificial intelligence marks the balance as razor-thin. Both teams showed a strong Stage 3, have steady results across the season, and build their game around their superstar players — donk and ZywOo. The difference the model sees is Spirit’s current form peak in Budapest: they have already convincingly defeated FaZe and MOUZ, imposing a fast tempo that barely allows opponents to adapt.
Vitality respond with structure and experience, but at this Major Spirit look just slightly sharper in decisive moments. Therefore, AI leans toward a 2–1 scenario in favor of Spirit — a very close series where every map can end by the smallest margin.
MOUZ vs FURIA
In the second semifinal, FURIA receive the favorite status due to a deeper map pool and more convincing wins over top-level opponents in recent weeks. MOUZ can keep pace and discipline, but the strength of their opponents so far looks weaker compared to FURIA’s road.
The Brazilians have already shown power on Nuke, Overpass, and Inferno, and their key players maintain top form with almost no drops. AI believes that in such a series, FURIA’s stability outweighs MOUZ’s local advantages, and predicts 2–1 for the Brazilian squad.
Final: Spirit vs FURIA — and the title goes to Brazil
In the final simulated by the AI, two teams face each other that passed Stage 3 without losses and keep the highest tempo throughout the tournament. Spirit arrive at the decisive match with the brightest individual star of the Major — donk is putting up numbers that look like they belong in another universe.
Why AI favors FURIA:
- deeper and more flexible map pool for long series
- several players stay consistently strong across all maps
- fewer performance swings compared to Spirit
- FalleN’s leadership provides stability in late-game decisions
The model arrives at a 3–2 scenario for FURIA: Spirit take their comfortable maps thanks to donk’s individual peak, but over a long Bo5 distance, team stability and strategic adaptation give the Brazilians the advantage.
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How AI sees the playoff bracket
The algorithm forms this bracket: Spirit, Vitality, MOUZ, and FURIA win in the quarterfinals. In the semifinals, Spirit and FURIA advance. And in the decisive match, the Brazilian squad prevails in a long Bo5.
This is not just a “feeling” — but a consistent calculation based on numbers and current form of each team.
