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Prediction: 3DMAX vs paiN — ESL Pro League Season 23 Stage 1

News
Feb 28
33 views 3 mins read

The Swiss round opener between 3DMAX and paiN features two teams of comparable level but with very different approaches. 3DMAX rely on structure and discipline, while paiN look to win through tempo and aggression. In a Bo3 format, the veto phase and economy control become critical.

Road to the Match

body 3dmax
Image via ESL

The past few months have been difficult for 3DMAX:

  • 0–2 vs HEROIC — lacked firepower in key moments.
  • 0–2 vs Astralis — struggled to adapt during the series.
  • 0–2 vs Falcons — lost control of the tempo.
  • 1–2 vs M1X KS — close series with missed opportunities.
  • 0–2 vs Falcons — repeated issues against fast-paced play.

misutaaa remains the most statistically consistent player, Maka plays a key role in positional control, while Ex3rcice and Lucky handle trading duties. 3DMAX look significantly better when they slow the game down and prevent opponents from forcing chaos.

paiN arrive with slightly better momentum, though results remain inconsistent:

  • 0–2 vs G2 — outpaced and outgunned in duels.
  • 1–2 vs Aurora — competitive series with late-round collapses.
  • 1–2 vs The MongolZ — struggled to convert advantages.
  • 0–2 vs Aurora — weak economy management.
  • 2–0 vs B8 — confident win built on structure.

vsm remains the key impact player, nqz adds aggression with the AWP, while biguzera and piriajr do much of the heavy lifting. paiN are most dangerous when the series turns fast and open.

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Current Form & Context

3DMAX do not have a deep map pool, but maintain acceptable results on Ancient (40%) and Anubis (50%). Dust2 (22%) and Nuke (29%) remain clear weaknesses. paiN are significantly stronger on Nuke (80%) and more comfortable on Inferno, while Dust2 (14%) and Mirage (33%) look unreliable. This creates a very clear direction for the veto on both sides.

Map Pool & Veto Analysis (Bo3, last 3 months)

  • Dust2: 3DMAX 22% | paiN 14%
  • Mirage: 3DMAX — | paiN 33%
  • Inferno: 3DMAX 33% | paiN —
  • Nuke: 3DMAX 29% | paiN 80%
  • Overpass: 3DMAX — | paiN —
  • Ancient: 3DMAX 40% | paiN —
  • Anubis: 3DMAX 50% | paiN —

Likely bans:

  • 3DMAX remove Nuke (80% for paiN).
  • paiN remove Anubis (50% for 3DMAX).

Likely picks:

  • 3DMAX: Ancient.
  • paiN: Mirage or Inferno.

Decider: Dust2 or Overpass — maps where economy management and clutch situations could prove decisive.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record between the teams is perfectly balanced at 3–3, with several overtime maps. Recent meetings have often been decided by the narrowest of margins, highlighting how close these teams are.

VRS & Tournament Context

Image via ESL

3DMAX (#23, 1408 pts)

  • +12 pts for a win
  • –18 pts for a loss

paiN (#33, 1321 pts)

  • +25 pts for a win
  • –11 pts for a loss

For 3DMAX, this is an opportunity to stabilize their VRS position, while for paiN a victory could provide a meaningful ranking boost.

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Prediction

paiN hold a clear advantage on Nuke, but an expected ban from 3DMAX should neutralize that strength. Over a full Bo3 series, structure, discipline, and better tempo control could tilt the balance in favor of the French side.

Expected score: 3DMAX 2–1 paiN

The series has all the ingredients to be long and tense, but if the pace remains controlled, 3DMAX look slightly more reliable in decisive moments.

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