In a series of posts on X, analyst Jesper “Udknud” Larsen explained why the hype around 100 Thieves does not match the reality of the Valve Regional Standings. Even a DraculaN win would not be enough without more results before April 6.
This is just to align the hype with reality. Hype is good and entertaining, but we also need to be realistic, Udknud wrote.
Why LAN wins alone are not enough
Udknud explained that points from DraculaN should be viewed as a long-term step, not a shortcut to the Major. These results help secure better invites in the future, but they do not solve the current issues. Right now, 100 Thieves still lack:
- enough prize money,
- high-value VRS wins,
- consistent results against stronger teams.
According to Udknud, the team would need at least 100 additional net VRS points before early April to stay truly competitive in the Major race.
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HLTV “predictions” explained
Udknud also addressed how fans interpret tools from HLTV. He stressed that HLTV’s Major tool is often misunderstood. It is not a real prediction. Instead, it is a projection that shows how the ranking would look if no new results were added before April 6. In practice, it mainly reflects ranking decay over time. Because of this, teams with many early LAN wins often appear higher than they should. A spot like “17th in Europe” does not mean the team will realistically finish there without more victories.
Other teams can still overtake them
Udknud warned that several teams currently ranked below 100 Thieves could still pass them. This will likely happen once those teams begin collecting:
- LAN wins,
- points from EPL, BLAST, and Stake Ranked,
- results from upcoming open LAN events.
As he noted, the final push toward the April ranking update is always the hardest part of the race.
Community reaction
Many fans agreed with Udknud’s assessment in the replies. Some pointed out that 100 Thieves have already signed up for two tournaments in March, including Roman Imperium Cup 6. These events could help stabilize their ranking. Others admitted that earlier optimism did not fully account for how strict and competitive the VRS system is.
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Why the Hype Still Falls Short
100 Thieves have made a promising start, but they are not close to a breakthrough yet. Without deep tournament runs and roughly 100 more net VRS points, the team risks falling out of real Major contention by April. The hype is real — but, as Udknud emphasized, VRS math cannot be ignored.
