The race for Major qualification in CS2 is entering its decisive phase, and a new simulation from analyst Finn (@MischiefCS2) has only intensified the drama. The updated VRS projections as of March 24, 2026, highlight not only the near-certain qualifiers but also a fiercely contested battle around the cutoff line.
The teams almost locked for the Major
According to the simulation, the top of the scene has essentially secured its place. The following teams sit at 99.9% qualification probability:
- Team Vitality
- Natus Vincere
- PARIVISION
- Aurora Gaming
- Team Falcons
- MOUZ
These teams are effectively out of reach for the chasing pack and can already begin preparing for Stage 3.
The gray zone: a brutal fight for the final spots
The real story begins just below — where a single result can completely reshape the standings. Among the teams currently hovering around qualification:
- G2 Esports — ~75% chance
- GamerLegion — ~44%
- Monte — ~57%
- HEROIC — ~64%
- 3DMAX — ~70%
- BIG — ~52%
- K27 — ~48%
This is where the Major race truly lives — every LAN result now carries massive weight.
FaZe, B8, and NiP — on the outside (for now)
The situation looks even more concerning for teams currently outside the cutoff:
- FaZe Clan — ~47%
- B8 — ~33%
- Ninjas in Pyjamas — ~30%
FaZe’s case is particularly striking. According to Finn, choosing the wrong events — or missing key LAN opportunities — could significantly hurt their chances.
How the simulation works
Finn clarified that the model goes far beyond simple point calculations:
The simulations work by taking all future possible matches, simulating them and then passing them through the model thousands of times.
In other words, it’s a full Monte Carlo-style model that evaluates thousands of potential scenarios, including future match results and their impact on VRS standings.
K27 — the chaos factor of the Major race
One of the most intriguing storylines is K27, whose situation Finn described as a “point minefield.” The team has been playing extremely close matches and is balancing right on the edge of qualification. This sparked a wave of community reactions:
- “K27 qualifying would be the ultimate VRS manipulation…”
- “K27 OVER FAZE FRAUDS”
- “K27 making their S-tier debut already in a Major ”
Some fans even suggest that K27 could sneak into the Major through a combination of smart scheduling and momentum.
Community reactions: confusion, hope, and memes
The discussion quickly turned chaotic:
- “If FaZe mess up Draculan are they done for?”
- “I want BIG to make it so badly.”
- “Hope Gentle Mates miss out!”
Finn later clarified one of his earlier comments:
M8’s chances are decreasing but it’s not the end of the world… they can still catch up.
This highlights a key takeaway — even teams outside the cutoff still have a chance, but the margin for error is gone.
What this means for the Major
The current VRS situation is one of the tightest in recent years. The gap between roughly 10th and 20th place is so small that:
- one bad result can push a team out of contention
- one deep run can secure a Major spot
Crucially, it’s no longer just about form — event selection and scheduling now play a decisive role.
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Final takeaway — no room for mistakes
The 2026 Major race is turning into a complex battle between performance, scheduling, and VRS math. While top teams can already relax, for squads like FaZe, BIG, and K27 — the next few weeks will define their entire season.
