The latest analytical projections ahead of the IEM Cologne 2026 Major show significant changes in the Americas region. The key factor is the progress of Team Liquid — the team is now considered one of the favorites to reach Stage 2 of the tournament, which changes the balance of power in the qualification race.
Liquid rise in the projections
According to the latest analytics, Team Liquid now have approximately an 87% chance of reaching Stage 2 of the Major. The team has recently found strong form, which allowed it to climb significantly in the projections. This became one of the main shifts in the balance of power ahead of the tournament.
The projected list of Stage 2 participants currently includes:
- FURIA
- Team Liquid
- Legacy
- Sharks Esports
Several teams under threat
The increase in Liquid’s chances has created problems for other teams in the region.
Currently in the risk zone are:
- Passion UA
- M80
According to analysts, their chances of qualifying are significantly lower, and any changes in the results of upcoming tournaments could ultimately determine their fate.
South American teams take a risk
Another factor influencing the projections is the decision by several South American teams to choose Circuit X instead of the tournament in Bucharest. Such a choice may affect the rankings and the number of points required to qualify for the Major. Analysts note that teams are effectively putting everything on a single tournament, which makes the fight for invites even more unpredictable.
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The race for the Major is just beginning
Until the invitations for the IEM Cologne 2026 Major are distributed, the situation may still change dramatically. Considering the tight rankings and different tournament scenarios, every result in the coming weeks could influence the final list of teams participating in the Major.
