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Loss of ESL Pro League lowers Virtus.pro’s chances for the Major 2025

News
Sep 27
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Virtus.pro will not be able to compete at ESL Pro League in Stockholm after three of their players were denied entry to Sweden due to medical insurance issues. This decision not only impacted their tournament participation but also severely complicated the “bears’” chances of qualifying for the StarLadder Major in Budapest.

ENTRY DENIAL AND VP VISAS REVOKED

The organization officially confirmed in a statement that three starting players were denied entry. Although similar insurance policies had been accepted in the Schengen area previously, Swedish border officials refused them this time. Virtus.pro quickly arranged new documents, but the decision was already made, and visas were revoked.

To replace the Russian squad, ESL invited ENCE, who are now forced to sacrifice their participation at the Birch Cup in order to make it to Pro League on time.

VRS RANKING AFTER EPL: VIRTUS.PRO ON THE EDGE OF FALLING OUT OF THE TOP 16

The main blow for Virtus.pro is that ESL Pro League was their key chance to secure a spot in the VRS top 16 before the October 6 deadline. As of September 25, their qualification probability was around 91% (sitting in Europe’s top 12). But after their withdrawal, a new forecast from analyst Finn “Mischief” Farrer shows just a 24.5% chance of qualification.

In effect, Virtus.pro lost their opportunity to earn points toward the Major: only two LAN tournaments remain (CS Asia Championships and IEM Chengdu), both starting after the qualification cutoff.

A NARROW MARGIN OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE BEARS

Currently, Virtus.pro hold 15th place in the ranking, occupying one of the last qualification slots. However, fnatic, SAW, BetBoom, PARIVISION, and HEROIC are all closing in within 50 points. If at least two of these teams perform well, VP risk falling out of the Major race.

Their recent match record does little to inspire confidence: losses to paiN, Astralis, and Falcons highlight instability, while single-map wins against 3DMAX and Lynn Vision fail to offset the negative trend. The only somewhat consistent maps for Virtus.pro remain Train (60%) and Overpass (57%), while their performances on other maps look critically weak.

VIRTUS.PRO’S DEPENDENCE ON OTHER RESULTS

Even if the team manages to hold onto their top-16 place until October 6, the road ahead looks even harder. Missing ESL Pro League deprived them of valuable practice against top teams, and upcoming events in Asia and China won’t impact the Major qualification. This means VP’s fate in Budapest now depends not on their own performance, but on the results of their rivals.

A STRATEGIC FAILURE BEYOND THE SERVER

Virtus.pro’s situation looks like a strategic failure that occurred off the server. Documentation issues cost them a crucial opportunity, and now the team is effectively cut off from earning additional points. All that remains for the “bears” is to hope for their competitors’ failures. But even with a bit of luck, they risk arriving in Budapest as a team lacking preparation and confidence in their own abilities.

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