Team Spirit, MOUZ, FUT Esports, Team Vitality, Team Falcons, G2 Esports, Natus Vincere, BetBoom Team and Aurora Gaming are already close to securing places at the PGL Singapore Major, according to Mischief’s first long-range European prediction. The forecast is based on a new simulation model and remains subject to change.
The early outlook is notable because it gives a first view of the European race long before the final Major ranking is decided. Team Spirit lead the model with a 99.99% chance of qualifying, while MOUZ are also at 99.9%.
Nine Teams in Strong Position
FUT Esports and Team Vitality each have a 99.9% chance of reaching the Major in the current simulation. Team Falcons follow at 99.8%, while G2 Esports are projected at 99.6%.
Natus Vincere are the highest-ranked Stage 2 team in the forecast, with a 99.5% qualification chance. BetBoom Team stand at 99.1%, and Aurora Gaming are listed at 98.6%.
PARIVISION, BIG and Alliance are also currently projected to qualify. However, their chances are lower at 89.6%, 87.1% and 85.1%, respectively.
FaZe and Other Teams Remain in Race
FaZe Clan are placed in the Stage 1 qualification group with an 84.4% chance. The forecast notes that their position depends on whether they accept invitations to swing events, which could affect their LAN ranking.
B8 have a projected chance of 74.8%, followed by Astralis at 67.7%. HEROIC stand at 50.8%, while IC Esports are at 50.0% and Ninjas in Pyjamas at 48.5%.
GamerLegion are the first team currently outside the projected qualification places at 47.2%. Meanwhile, 100 Thieves are at 43.1%, Magic at 25.4%, EYEBALLERS at 25.0%, HOTU at 23.0% and Luminosity Gaming at 22.7%.
Mischief Plans API and Website Release
Mischief said he simulated 60 million matches for the European race to the PGL Singapore Major. He also stressed that the current projection is “very rough” and will change as team calendars shift and new events are announced.
The analyst said the simulation methodology has been fully reworked. Every result is now tracked and saved, which should allow users to inspect the specific outcomes that led to qualification.
In addition, Mischief plans to release an API and website that will let users run their own simulations. The API is intended to provide a dataset close to the information used by HLTV and Valve for ranking generation.
Once released, the simulation should be auditable through a specified runId. Mischief said he first needs to optimize the system and complete a simulation snapshot table.
