1win and Aurora meet in the playoff quarterfinal of ESL Pro League Season 24. The winner moves on to the semifinals, and the loser leaves the tournament. Aurora sit 7th in the VRS, while 1win rank 15th. The two teams have never played each other before.
Format & Tournament Specifics
This is a single elimination match in the playoff stage of ESL Pro League Season 24. There is no second chance, so every map will count. Aurora enter as the higher-ranked side. However, 1win arrive in strong form and have little to lose.
Current Form
1win: a three-match win streak with the biggest scalp so far
1win have won their last three matches, including a 2:0 win over Spirit. In addition, they beat Legacy and G2. However, they also lost to Vitality and HEROIC before that. As a result, 1win look dangerous right now, but their stretch is still short.
Recent results:
- 1win 2:0 Spirit
- 1win 2:0 Legacy
- 1win 2:1 G2
- 1win 0:2 Vitality
- 1win 1:2 HEROIC
The key player is Ax1Le. He posts a 1.16 rating, 0.71 kills per round, 0.64 deaths per round, 75.0% KAST, a 1.13 multi-kill rating, +1.12% round swing and 81.4 ADR. He leads his team in impact and damage.
Aurora: strong against the middle tier, shaky against the very top
Aurora beat FURIA, BetBoom and 9z in recent series. Meanwhile, they lost 0:2 to Falcons and 1:3 to Vitality. Therefore, Aurora can beat good teams, but the very top has been a problem.
Recent results:
- Aurora 2:1 FURIA
- Aurora 2:1 BetBoom
- Aurora 0:2 Falcons
- Aurora 2:0 9z
- Aurora 1:3 Vitality
Their key player is Jimpphat. He posts a 1.13 rating, 0.70 kills per round, 0.60 deaths per round, 74.6% KAST, a 1.03 multi-kill rating, +1.07% round swing and 76.0 ADR. He dies less often than Ax1Le. However, Ax1Le is ahead on rating, kills, KAST, multi-kill rating, round swing and damage. Overall, the star duel is very close.
Map Pool & Veto
Win rate over the past 3 months (1win | Aurora):
- Cache: 50% (10 maps) | 50% (6 maps)
- Dust2: 67% (30 maps) | 43% (7 maps)
- Mirage: 69% (13 maps) | 64% (14 maps)
- Inferno: 75% (4 maps) | 57% (7 maps)
- Nuke: — (0 maps) | 88% (8 maps)
- Ancient: 56% (18 maps) | — (1 map)
- Anubis: 38% (13 maps) | 67% (9 maps)
Expected veto: 1win will almost certainly ban Nuke, where Aurora win 88% of their maps and 1win have no recent games. In return, Aurora have a clear reason to remove Dust2. 1win hold 67% there over a huge 30-map sample.
After those bans, Aurora can pick Anubis, where they hold 67% and 1win sit at just 38%. On the other hand, 1win can choose Inferno at 75%, although that sample is only four maps. Ancient is another option for 1win at 56% over 18 maps, and Aurora have played it only once. Mirage looks like the most likely decider. Both teams post strong numbers there, with 1win at 69% and Aurora at 64%, each on a sample of more than 13 maps.
VRS forecast: 1win currently have 1556 points and sit 15th. A win would lift them to 1556 + 49 = 1605 points and 12th place. A loss would cost them 6 points, taking them to 1556 − 6 = 1550, and they would stay 15th.
Aurora have 1813 points and sit 7th. A win would move them to 1813 + 31 = 1844 points and 5th place. A loss would give 1813 − 25 = 1788 points, and they would stay 7th.
Prediction
Both teams enter this match with a semifinal spot on the line. 1win have real arguments. They are on a three-match win streak, they beat Spirit 2:0, and Ax1Le leads Jimpphat on most key stats. In addition, they have a deep sample on Dust2, Mirage and Ancient.
Still, Aurora look slightly more dangerous. Their Nuke and Anubis numbers give them two strong map options, while 1win’s only clear edge outside Dust2 is a small Inferno sample. Moreover, Aurora hold a big gap in the VRS. However, their losses to Falcons and Vitality show that they can stumble against top opposition, so 1win should push this series to a decider.
If Aurora secure Anubis and stay solid on Mirage, they should move on to the semifinals.
Projected result: Aurora 2–1 1win
