The opening Swiss stage of PGL Astana 2026 features an interesting clash between FURIA and Monte — two teams with very different trajectories heading into the event. FURIA arrive as the higher-ranked and more experienced side, but their recent results raise questions about consistency. Monte, meanwhile, continue to develop as a dangerous upset team capable of punishing unstable favorites. This matchup could be far closer than rankings suggest.
Current form — instability on both sides
FURIA’s recent form has been highly inconsistent:
- 1–2 vs FaZe
- 1–2 vs GamerLegion
- 0–2 vs Falcons
- 0–2 vs Vitality
- 2–0 vs MOUZ
- 2–1 vs NAVI
The Brazilian side clearly remain capable of beating elite opposition, but they also struggle to maintain momentum across multiple events. Their aggressive system sometimes collapses against disciplined opponents. Monte’s form has also fluctuated, though they continue to look dangerous against mid-tier competition:
- 3–1 vs HEROIC
- 2–1 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
- 1–2 vs HEROIC
- 2–1 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas
- 2–0 vs Betclic
- 1–2 vs M80
Monte may not have the same ceiling as FURIA, but they consistently create uncomfortable series through structured mid-round play.
read more
Key matchup — KSCERATO vs afro
This duel could heavily influence the pace of the game.
KSCERATO (FURIA):
- Rating: 1.16
- KPR: 0.73
- ADR: 78.8
- KAST: 73.1%
afro (Monte):
- Rating: 1.22
- KPR: 0.76
- ADR: 79.4
- KAST: 73.7%
Kaike Cerato remains FURIA’s most stable rifler and often becomes the anchor in difficult rounds. afro, however, has quietly developed into Monte’s main carry threat and one of the most impactful AWPers outside the elite tier. If afro consistently wins opening duels, Monte can absolutely push this series deep.
Map pool & veto — Monte may have hidden value
Stats (last 3 months):
- Dust2: FURIA 64% | Monte 75%
- Mirage: FURIA 47% | Monte 56%
- Inferno: FURIA 56% | Monte 60%
- Nuke: FURIA 29% | Monte 57%
- Overpass: FURIA 50% | Monte 0%
- Ancient: FURIA — | Monte 60%
- Anubis: FURIA — | Monte 83%
This veto is far more dangerous for FURIA than it initially appears. Monte hold statistically stronger numbers on Dust2, Mirage, Inferno, Nuke, Ancient, and especially Anubis. FURIA’s biggest comfort advantage comes from Overpass, where Monte look extremely weak.
Expected bans:
- FURIA likely remove Anubis
- Monte almost certainly remove Overpass
Expected picks:
- FURIA: Dust2 or Inferno
- Monte: Nuke or Ancient
Decider: Mirage or Dust2
The map pool gives Monte several realistic paths to competitiveness.
VRS implications
FURIA (#10 VRS):
- +17 points for a win
- –24 for a loss
Monte (#18 VRS):
- +57 points for a win
- –3 for a loss
Monte enter this match with almost no pressure and massive upside potential in the rankings, while FURIA risk losing valuable points with an upset defeat.
read more
Prediction
This matchup has upset potential written all over it. Monte’s map pool and structure make them significantly more dangerous than the rankings suggest. Still, FURIA’s individual firepower and higher ceiling should give them the edge over a full best-of-three.
Expected score: FURIA 2–1 Monte
If Monte win their map pick convincingly and control the pace, this series could become extremely uncomfortable for FURIA. But in most scenarios, the Brazilian side should still have enough star power to survive the opener.
