Stake Pulse Beat II gets underway today. CS2 analyst Udknud has published fresh predictions showing how each possible tournament result would move every team’s Major qualification chances.
Right now, Astralis hold the highest starting figure in the EU field at 86.6 percent. However, that number is not fixed, since a strong run at the event could push it much higher.
What the model actually shows
The model answers a simple question: if a team finishes in a given spot at Stake Pulse Beat II, what happens to its Major odds? As Udknud explained, an early exit is a nightmare scenario for any team with Major ambitions, since it drags their chances down. Meanwhile, winning the tournament produces a sharp increase in Major chances for most teams. That is what makes the coming matches interesting, since the eventual winner will see the biggest single jump in the standings.
Udknud’s projections come from a simulation model covering 50,000 simulated seasons and 51.3 million matches in total. For each team, the model calculates a current Major chance based on results so far, plus a separate projected chance for every possible finishing bracket: 1st, 2nd, 3rd-4th, 5th-8th, 9th-12th, and 13th-16th. Every team in the field currently sits at a 0-0 record, since the event is only just beginning.
How a result would change each team’s odds
Astralis currently hold an 86.6 percent Major chance. If they win Stake Pulse Beat II outright, that figure would rise to 96.4 percent. A 2nd place finish would put them at 89.8 percent, while 3rd-4th would leave them at 86.0 percent, close to their current number. A weaker run would still not be fatal for their Major hopes, dropping them to 80.7 percent for 5th-8th, 71.8 percent for 9th-12th, or 67.8 percent for 13th-16th.
HEROIC currently sit at a 47.9 percent Major chance, the second-highest starting figure in the field. A tournament win would lift that number to 77.3 percent, while a runner-up finish would raise it to 58.6 percent. A 3rd-4th finish would move their chance to 50.2 percent. Weaker results would pull their number down to 41.3 percent for 5th-8th, 29.7 percent for 9th-12th, or 25.2 percent for 13th-16th.
Virtus.pro hold a current Major chance of 17.5 percent. Winning the event would push that figure sharply upward to 53.8 percent, and a 2nd place finish would raise it to 30.1 percent. A 3rd-4th result would land them at 20.7 percent. Their chance would fall to 14.6 percent for 5th-8th, 8.2 percent for 9th-12th, or 6.1 percent for 13th-16th.
The rest of the field
Several other teams stand to gain meaningfully from a strong run. 100 Thieves currently hold a 12.7 percent Major chance, which a tournament win would raise to 36.1 percent. Fnatic sit at 8.2 percent now, rising to 33.1 percent with a title. JiJieHao hold a 7.2 percent current chance, which a win would lift to 30.2 percent.
Further down the list, BBL currently sit at 4.1 percent, FOKUS at 3.3 percent, and Betclic at 2.3 percent. For each of these teams, winning the tournament would still produce a large jump, raising their Major chances to 22.3 percent, 18.6 percent, and 15.8 percent respectively.
Toward the bottom of the field, Sashi currently hold a 0.9 percent Major chance and Eternal Fire sit at 0.8 percent. Phantom and Johnny Speeds each carry a current chance of just 0.1 percent. Meanwhile, EAC, ASTRAL, and Sangal currently show a 0 percent Major chance across every possible finishing bracket in the model.
Why the top-4 line matters
Udknud also pointed to a simple benchmark that applies across the whole field. For every team, reaching the top four at Stake Pulse Beat II counts as the break-even result. Finishing above that line would raise a team’s Major chance compared to where it stands today, while finishing below it would lower that chance instead.
With Stake Pulse Beat II now underway, these projections will move as real results come in. Since Udknud’s model shows a tournament win producing the largest single boost for almost every team, the winner of this event stands to gain the most ground in the Major race, and it remains to be seen which team claims that jump.
