Analyst and Valve Regional Standings model creator Jesper “udknud” Larsen published a large thread criticizing several Tier-1 teams for skipping CS Asia Championships 2026. According to him, FURIA, Aurora, G2, Astralis, and FUT may have put their future Tier-1 invites at serious risk by focusing entirely on IEM Cologne Major 2026 preparation.
Udkund believes teams went “all-in” on the Major
According to the analyst, after the Major qualification cut-off every top team had two primary goals:
- properly prepare for the Major;
- secure Tier-1 invites for next season through the VRS.
Because of that, he described the decision to skip CAC 2026 as extremely risky. Udkund believes these organizations effectively made an “all-or-nothing” gamble on one prestige event instead of collecting additional VRS points at another major LAN tournament.
In his opinion, MOUZ and Legacy approached the situation much more safely — both teams attended CAC, stacked valuable points, and practically secured themselves among the teams already close to locking next season’s invites.
This is a very high-stakes gamble. If they fail at the Major, they could end up with both a disappointing result and problems securing invites for next season.
Stage 3 could become the deciding factor for the Tier-1 scene
Udkund also highlighted how heavily the VRS currently depends on the most recent major LAN events. According to him, the system now essentially rewards:
Who won the most recent max-event LANs.
The analyst pointed out that CAC 2026, PGL Astana 2026, and IEM Cologne Major 2026 all carry identical VRS value despite the Major obviously being far more prestigious competitively. Because of this, even one deep tournament run can massively reshape the rankings. As examples, he mentioned TYLOO and Astralis after FISSURE Playground 1.
Which teams are currently under pressure
According to Udkund’s projections, the race for the final six “safe” Tier-1 invite spots currently looks like this:
Stage 3:
- FURIA
- Aurora
- The MongolZ
- PARIVISION
Stage 2:
- G2
- Astralis
- FUT
- 9z
Stage 1:
- GamerLegion
The analyst believes most of these teams now likely need a deep Major run, while some organizations may even require a playoff appearance to secure their next-season invites.
At the same time, he admitted the situation is not completely black and white. Some of these teams already lost significant ground after disappointing performances at Rivals, IEM Atlanta, and PGL Astana, meaning the decision to skip CAC was also connected to proper Major preparation.
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VRS once again becomes the biggest topic in CS2
Udkund’s thread quickly sparked massive discussion across the Counter-Strike community. Many fans agreed that the current VRS system forces organizations into extremely difficult choices between preparing for the Major and securing future Tier-1 tournament invitations.
A major concern within the community is that even elite teams could potentially miss next season’s biggest LAN events because of one poor Major run or the decision to skip a crucial VRS tournament.
