Analyst and one of the most well-known experts on the Valve Regional Standings system, Jesper “Udknud” Larsen, has published a detailed breakdown of the current VRS landscape in the race for invitations to IEM Cologne. His projection highlights not only the current top 40 standings but also how teams could drop due to point decay if they fail to secure wins before the upcoming monthly cutoffs. This is not a prediction of results — it’s a mathematical model showing what happens if “nothing changes.”
The Leaders Are Safe — But Not Everyone
At the top of the table sit Team Vitality (1997 points), FURIA, Team Spirit, and Team Falcons. According to Udknud’s calculations, even if Vitality fail to win another match before April, they would lose just eight points — remaining comfortably in the safe zone. This sparked questions in the replies, but the analyst clarified that the numbers reflect decay impact only, not a full competitive simulation. Vitality’s deep reserve of points from major events protects them from significant ranking volatility.
read more
The Biggest Risk: The MongolZ and the Tier-1 Bubble
The most striking example is The MongolZ. If they fail to secure wins in upcoming Tier-1 events, they could fall as low as 38th place by April. Udknud specifically pointed out that a 0–3 run at PGL Cluj could push them far below the Major invite line. A similar situation applies to other teams currently sitting in the “Tier-1 bubble,” including:
- Team Liquid
- BIG
- G2 Esports
- Natus Vincere
Liquid are a particularly notable case — a team that famously saved their status at the last moment last season. According to Udknud, they now find themselves walking a similar tightrope. Their only realistic path to stability lies in strong LAN performances.
Why Decay Matters So Much
Valve Regional Standings operate on a gradual decay system, where older results lose weight over time. If teams fail to reinforce their ranking with new wins, their points decline even without direct losses. That makes the upcoming Tier-1 events critically important. Udknud’s table also accounts for:
- The number of guaranteed matches for the top 40
- The number of upcoming Tier-1 tournaments
- The projected point loss before the next ranking cutoffs
His conclusion is straightforward: this model shows which teams need to win the most right now.
Who Faces the Most Pressure Before Cologne?
While the top five appear relatively secure, the range between 10th and 25th place is far more volatile. A single strong series could:
- Save a team’s Tier-1 status
- Or push them outside the invite zone
Teams like BIG, M80, 3DMAX, and even Liquid are heavily dependent on a handful of key Tier-1 series in the coming weeks. While the leaders have room to breathe, the “middle class” must deliver immediately.
read more
The Race to Cologne: Math vs. Form
IEM Cologne has long been a benchmark event for the global scene. This time, however, the battle for invites looks especially tense. Udknud’s projection doesn’t forecast winners — it highlights who cannot afford mistakes. If April looks calm for Vitality, for many teams in the lower half of the top 20, the next LAN events may determine whether they remain part of Tier-1 Counter-Strike.
