VRS analyst Finn (@MischiefCS2) has released an updated simulation of the European race for IEM Cologne Major 2026 invites, introducing three changes to the projected qualifiers. Around 50–55 teams still hold a mathematical chance of making the Major, with an Americas update expected soon.
Who’s currently in: favorites remain stable
At the top of the table, little has changed. Team Vitality, PARIVISION, Falcons, MOUZ, Spirit, Aurora, and NAVI all hold a 99% probability of qualifying for the Major. G2 (96.7%) and Astralis (93.7%) also appear to be in a very strong position.
Behind them sits a tightly packed group of contenders:
- GamerLegion — 88%
- FUT — 87.3%
- FaZe — 84.8%
- Monte — 71.3%
- Gentle Mates — 70%
- BetBoom — 64.7%
- 3DMAX — 52.1%
- HOTU — 48.7%
3DMAX deserve particular attention after significantly improving their outlook by attending open LAN events, reducing their LAN deficit in the VRS system. HOTU also gained ground thanks to a strong Roman Imperium run.
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On the outside looking in: who risks missing the Major
Among the teams currently outside the projected qualification spots:
- HEROIC — 47%
- Ninjas in Pyjamas — 37.4%
- B8 — 33.2%
- Liquid — 27.4%
- BIG — 26.2%
- BC.Game — 17.6%
- fnatic — 5.4%
Liquid, according to Finn, have around a 27% chance of qualifying — and their bet on Rotterdam appears to be a true “dice roll.” B8 and BIG are significantly behind in LAN wins, which remain crucial for accumulating VRS points.
Community reaction: debate over transparency and chances
The post generated strong reactions. A 100 Thieves representative jokingly responded to their exclusion from the projected list, while Finn clarified that not all teams with a chance were included in the infographic due to space limitations.
When asked about the mathematical side of the model, the analyst explained that he creates “match scaffolding” for all future matches leading up to the Major, predicts outcomes based on odds generated by a Glicko-based model, and then logs which teams qualify in each simulation. “I’m a data junkie, but I can’t write explanations for the life of me,” Finn admitted, highlighting the complexity of the VRS system.
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What’s next?
The European race is far from over. Around 50–55 teams still hold a mathematical path to qualification, even if they are not shown in the infographic. LAN performances remain the decisive factor, forming the backbone of VRS points ahead of the cutoff. The Americas update is expected soon, which could further reshape the overall qualification picture. The race for the IEM Cologne Major 2026 is entering its decisive phase — and every tournament now carries significant weight.
