The first big post-tournament episode of HLTV Confirmed after IEM Chengdu 2025 turned into more than just a breakdown of a single event – it became a compact snapshot of the entire CS2 elite. In one show you had: the rise of FURIA and the “FalleN effect”, question marks around Vitality, the crisis in Spirit, the chaos of The MongolZ without Senzu, the roller coaster of Falcons and MOUZ, troubled NaVi, a tired FaZe, and a pale-looking Astralis. In parallel — a look towards StarLadder Major Budapest 2025 and BLAST Rivals Hong Kong, where Major storylines are already being seeded.
The Budapest Major: the bracket as a weapon
Analysts agreed that the playoff bracket structure could be just as decisive as the form of the teams. In a format with a final Swiss stage:
- a 3–0 record gives the most favorable seeding;
- 3–1 / 3–2 can immediately throw a team into a “group of death” in the quarterfinals;
- specific matchups (Falcons vs Spirit, MOUZ vs Vitality, FURIA vs G2, etc.) can completely break all pre-event predictions.
FURIA are currently on the best stretch of their season, but even they lost to MOUZ in Chengdu. Vitality, Falcons, MOUZ, Spirit all look like teams that:
- can win the Major,
- and just as easily crash out in the quarterfinals after one bad series.
Going 3–0 in Swiss isn’t about style points anymore, it’s about survival, the desk summed up harshly.
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FalleN: 13–0 in BO5s and a historic streak
In the “What are the odds?” segment, the panel broke down FalleN’s insane streak in BO5 grand finals:
- his last loss in a BO5 final came back in 2016;
- since then — 13 straight BO5 wins;
- the key question now: will he finish 2025 without a single BO5 defeat?
The odds from the show:
- SPUNJ — roughly 33%;
- Striker and Prof — around 80%;
- chat — about 91% “yes”.
The logic is simple: FURIA don’t have to reach every BO5 final at BLAST or the Major. But if they do get there, in a long series their structure, map pool and FalleN’s ice-cold leadership give them a serious edge.
The MongolZ without Senzu: Deagles, force buys and controlled chaos
The current version of The MongolZ with controlez instead of Senzu leaves a mixed impression:
- the team can still win important series against the likes of Spirit or paiN, and make playoffs;
- but their style has become even more “Mongolian”: questionable force buys on Dust2, and rounds where the plan basically sounds like “controlez will hit three headshots”.
Half of their forces looked like the only strat was ‘controlez kills three with a Deagle’, the desk admitted bluntly.
Controlez was a pleasant surprise and played better than many expected, but:
- he doesn’t provide the same impact as Senzu;
- this version of The MongolZ is not at the level of a true Major title contender.
The ceiling the analysts are willing to give them right now is reaching the playoffs — nothing more.
Falcons: talent + ego vs discipline
Once again, Falcons ended up as the prime example of a team with “two faces”:
- in groups — total dominance, NiKo and m0NESY look like the scariest duo in the world;
- in playoffs — key map failures and a painful series against FURIA, where:
- their main trump card Ancient never even made it into the veto;
- Inferno collapsed yet again.
Coach Sonic openly acknowledged the ego problem:
We have players with big egos. When something doesn’t work, they go for repeat peeks to ‘prove themselves’, and it breaks our structure.
Analysts compared Falcons to G2 in the ‘wild aim + fragile discipline’ era: one bad BO3 late in the tournament is enough for everything to fall apart. At the same time, everyone agrees: with a favorable bracket and Ancient in the pool, Falcons absolutely can win the Major.
MOUZ: world-class on a good day, “mood team” on a bad one
MOUZ received both praise and a cold reality check. Their two series against Vitality in Chengdu (especially the semi-final) were called some of the highest-level matches of the year:
- the team looked like an established top contender, not a “young underdog”;
- xertioN confidently took initiative;
- their structure looked mature and well-defined.
But the core issue, according to SPUNJ, hasn’t gone anywhere:
If xertioN is taking his duel every round, siuhy simply doesn’t have space to build the macro.
At their peak, MOUZ can win any tournament, if three things line up:
- star players are in form;
- the map pool matches their opponents well;
- the bracket doesn’t troll them.
But in terms of stability, this is still a “team of mood”, not a consistent championship-level contender like Vitality or FURIA.
Spirit: from dynasty talk to full-on crisis
The harshest criticism went to Team Spirit. Not long ago they were:
- champions of Katowice,
- Major winners,
- Cologne champions — the main candidate to become a CS2 dynasty.
Now they’re a team that’s genuinely painful to watch.
Key issues highlighted:
- weak T sides;
- positional mistakes from chopper in important moments;
- donk increasingly looking like a “very strong player” rather than an unstoppable monster;
- tN1R, who added more chaos than structure;
- brainless 3v5s on Nuke where they get info and then have no idea what to do with it.
There’s no point taking information if you do nothing with it. They just walk, die, and give info to the opponent. That’s not high-level CS, SPUNJ said sharply.
Against the backdrop of their previous streak of constant finals, this slump looks like a systemic crisis rather than a brief dip in form.
NaVi, FaZe, Astralis: big brands, quiet results
NaVi, FaZe and Astralis were mentioned briefly but tellingly:
- NaVi — their Chengdu showing was called a failure, and long-term belief in the project is almost gone;
- FaZe — look exhausted, and rain is less and less able to carry the historic role that made him a symbol of the org;
- Astralis — their playoff appearance says more about the weakness of the group than about the strength of the Danes.
All three are seen more as spoilers and dark horses than as true favorites for the Major.
BLAST Rivals Hong Kong: rematches, upsets and a fresh test
At the end of the show, the focus shifted to BLAST Rivals Hong Kong:
- Vitality and FURIA are preparing for a BO3 rematch — another test of their growing rivalry;
- Passion UA blew up the bracket by beating The MongolZ and advancing to a match for first place in the group against Falcons;
- Spirit now have a chance to embarrass themselves against the same MongolZ for a second time, just at a different event.
They also mentioned the integration with Refrag — a platform where viewers can replay tournament highlights on their own server and feel what it’s like to face a professional execute in real time.
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The scene before the storm
In the end, this episode of HLTV Confirmed became a compact but comprehensive map of the CS2 landscape heading into Budapest:
- FURIA with FalleN — a top-3 team of the year candidate and the main chaos factor;
- Vitality — champions by trophies, but with questions around motivation and leadership;
- Falcons and MOUZ — “perfect tournament” teams that can win the Major if form and bracket align;
- Spirit — a live warning of how fast a superteam can fall apart;
- MongolZ, NaVi, FaZe, Astralis — stuck between a great past and an unconvincing present.
And all of this is happening on the eve of a Major where the main character may not be a single superteam — but the chaos of the bracket itself.
