The race for spots at the IEM Cologne Major 2026 is entering its final stage, and a new update from analyst Finn (MischiefCS2) has only added more fuel to the fire. The updated European VRS simulation as of March 26 highlights not only the near-certain qualifiers but also complete chaos around the final spots.
Practically locked in: Stage 3 is already decided
At the top of the rankings, the situation looks almost settled. Six teams can already begin preparing for the later stages of the Major:
- Team Vitality — 99.99%
- NAVI — 99.99%
- Aurora Gaming — 99.99%
- PARIVISION — 99.99%
- Team Falcons — 99.99%
- MOUZ — 99.99%
The only remaining intrigue here is positional shuffling. For example, Aurora could still theoretically drop below Team Spirit, but that scenario remains unlikely.
read more
Stage 2: stable at the top, but cracks are forming
The next group of teams also looks relatively secure:
- Astralis — 99.99%
- FURIA Esports — 99.9%
- G2 Esports — ~98.9%
- GamerLegion — ~98.3%
However, this is where tension starts to build. G2 have already lost some ground after their loss to Sinners, while GamerLegion are sitting on the edge — their chances drop significantly depending on final placement scenarios.
The hottest zone: Stage 1 turns into a coin flip
This is where the real chaos begins:
- Monte — 91.6%
- HEROIC — 77.6%
- BIG — 77.1%
- 3DMAX — 51.8%
- BetBoom Team — 50.7%
- K27 — 50.6%
Three teams are effectively hovering around the 50% mark, meaning every single upcoming match could completely reshape the standings.
On the outside: big names at risk
One of the biggest shocks is the situation of teams currently outside qualification:
- FaZe Clan — just 43.3%
- Ninjas in Pyjamas — 28.0%
- OG — 1.2%
FaZe in particular are under serious pressure, with results from rivals like BIG and BetBoom further damaging their chances.
Community reaction: “It’s still in their hands… but barely”
The update quickly sparked discussion across the community, with fans trying to understand the qualification scenarios. One user asked about Ninjas in Pyjamas:
@NIPCS chances?
Finn replied briefly:
On the spreadsheet
The discussion around Gentle Mates highlighted how much depends on upcoming LAN events:
- “Can gentlemates qualify still if they do well at stake?”
- “yeah. they wouldnt have a chance otherwise”
Another key point was the impact of other teams’ results:
making it was always heavily reliant on stake. your competition losing out at BC has far more effect than your own loss.
And regarding BetBoom Team:
It’s still in their hands. They’ve got no safety net after DRL6 though
Key factor: the final LANs will decide everything
Finn emphasized that several crucial tournaments are still ahead:
Still have some important LANs & high value tournaments to go
The final cutoff is set for April 6, when the Major participant list will be locked.
Final takeaway: one of the most chaotic Major races in years
This European VRS cycle is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. While the top teams are already locked in, the Stage 1 battle is essentially a roulette, where even a single result could decide an entire season. And perhaps most notably — for the first time in a long while, a giant like FaZe is genuinely at risk of missing the Major.
