BLAST Open Porto 2026 moves to the Playoffs, where G2 and Falcons will meet in one of the Quarter-finals. The teams will play a Bo3 in a Single Elimination format: the winner will continue the fight in the Semi-finals, while for the losing team, the tournament will end. Falcons are ranked second in the world against G2’s ninth place and enter the series as the favorite, but strong Mirage and Inferno give G2 real opportunities to force a fight.
BLAST OPEN PORTO 2026 PLAYOFFS — A MISTAKE MEANS ELIMINATION
The Playoffs of BLAST Open Porto 2026 are played in a Single Elimination format, so unlike the group stage, there is no second chance anymore. The winner of the Quarter-finals between G2 and Falcons advances to the Semi-finals, while the losing team immediately ends its run at the tournament.
The Bo3 format makes the veto one of the key factors of the series. Falcons have a significant advantage on Dust2 and Anubis, while G2 show very strong results on Mirage and Inferno. Because of this, the match can change significantly depending on how successfully the teams protect their most comfortable maps.
HEAD-TO-HEAD — FALCONS ARE AHEAD
According to the presented statistics, Falcons have won six head-to-head maps against G2’s two. Their latest series took place at IEM Cologne Major 2026: Falcons took Ancient 16:13 and Dust2 13:8, while G2 answered with a 13:10 victory on Inferno.
Falcons’ advantage can also be seen over a longer distance. At StarLadder Budapest Major 2025, they won Dust2 13:10 and Inferno 13:4, and even earlier defeated G2 twice at Esports World Cup 2025. For G2, this history creates additional pressure, although the strong result on Inferno shows where the team can look for its chance.
CURRENT FORM
Falcons — strong form, but without absolute stability
Falcons approach the Playoffs after a mixed stretch. The team lost to MOUZ 1:2, but before that defeated Legacy and Lynn Vision with a 2:1 score, and also demolished The MongolZ and Astralis 2:0. A separate surprise was the 0:2 loss to Legacy, which showed that even one of the tournament favorites can have problems with an unsuccessful veto.
The main individual force remains m0NESY, who has a 1.33 rating over the last three months. He shows 0.84 kills per round, only 0.56 deaths, a 1.23 multi-kill rating, a +3.98% round swing, and 83.2 ADR. Together with NiKo, kyousuke, TeSeS, and karrigan, he forms a roster with a very high individual ceiling.
G2 — a dangerous opponent after strong victories
G2 have recently been showing fairly competitive results. The team defeated Aurora 2:1, Natus Vincere 2:0, and earlier Aurora 2:0, as well as beating Astralis 2:1. At the same time, this stretch included losses to Spirit 0:2 and FURIA 1:2, so G2’s form cannot be called completely stable.
The best listed numbers belong to HeavyGod with a 1.18 rating. He records 0.69 kills per round, has 75.0% KAST, a 1.19 multi-kill rating, and 77.5 ADR. Together with r1nkle, MATYS, huNter-, and NertZ, he gives G2 enough firepower to punish Falcons for any poor start to a map.
MAP POOL & VETO
Statistics over the last 3 months (G2 | Falcons):
- Cache: — | —
- Dust2: 29% | 75%
- Mirage: 80% | 50%
- Inferno: 100% | 57%
- Nuke: — | 67%
- Ancient: 25% | 33%
- Anubis: 29% | 80%
Expected veto:
- G2 have the most serious reason to remove Anubis. Falcons have won 80% of five played maps, while G2 have only 29% across seven matches. Dust2 is also very dangerous for G2 — 29% wins against Falcons’ 75%.
- Falcons, in turn, should logically limit Inferno. G2 have a 100% win rate here across eight maps, while Falcons have 57%. An additional argument is the latest head-to-head series, where it was on Inferno that G2 managed to beat Falcons 13:10.
Likely maps:
- Mirage looks like one of the best choices for G2. The team has an 80% win rate across ten matches against Falcons’ 50%. If Inferno is blocked, Mirage may become G2’s main tool for taking their own pick.
- Falcons look much more comfortable on Dust2, where they have 75% against 29%, as well as on Anubis with an 80% to 29% advantage. If at least one of these maps remains in the series, Falcons will get a very convenient direction for their own choice.
KEY DUELS
- m0NESY vs r1nkle — the main AWP duel of the match, which will influence control of opening frags and the tempo of rounds.
- NiKo vs HeavyGod — a rifle matchup between two key sources of consistent impact in the middle of rounds.
- kyousuke vs MATYS — an aggressive duel for space, where successful entries can quickly destroy the opponent’s defensive structure.
PREDICTION
G2 have a very real path to victory. Mirage with 80% and Inferno with 100% show that the team has two maps where Falcons may come under significant pressure. Another argument is G2’s good current form with victories over Natus Vincere and Aurora, so the series should hardly end with a one-sided scoreline.
However, Falcons have more strong arguments over the distance of a Bo3. They lead 6:2 in head-to-head maps, significantly outperform G2 on Dust2 and Anubis, occupy a higher place in the world ranking, and receive huge individual impact from m0NESY. If Falcons build the veto correctly and do not allow G2 to get both Mirage and Inferno at the same time, the favorite should advance to the Semi-finals.
Projected result: Falcons 2–1 G2
