Success is a contexual concept when it comes to Counter-Strike teams. A team like Fnatic likely felt success when they won Fragadelphia Blocktober, qualifying them for the StarLadder Budapest Major. A team like Vitality felt no success in that same Major until they hoisted the trophy on the final day.
There are various expectations for every Tier 1 team and I would consider every roster that hovers around the top 15 to occupy Tier 1. It’s easy to overlook the fact that every team that occupies Tier 1 is good team in comparision to other rosters in world CS. However, seeing these rosters getting beat up by the usual favorites, Vitality, Mouz, and Furia warps your perception to consider them bad since those matches are the most memorable, as the stakes of a tournament usually build. Not every team is destined to greatness, but underdogs should be allowed to succeed to even if it does not mean lifting a trophy. Without further ado, here’s what a handful of the Tier 1 underdogs (12th-7th) need to accomplish to have a successful Season One of 2026.
Astralis
Astralis made 3 huge changes in the recent offseason. One, they finally cut ties with superstar AWPer, dev1ce. Swedish journeyman, phzy has been brought in his stead. I see this as an upgrade today as phzy has looked to be a more active sniper, consistently imposing himself in their matches. Sometimes that can end poorly, but it is important for a meddling team to try to make a big difference with the most expensive weapon used in meta CS. The second change was Ryu, brought in for Magisk who was temporarily on Astralis. Ryu has shown impressive moments of being able to lock down bombsites even in his limited time with Astralis thus far.
The final change is that they switched to speaking English, moving away from Danish for the first time in the organization’s history. This one is proving difficult to overcome for jabbi, who his teammates have mentioned still switches to Danish by accident. Even overhearing them talk in passing, jabbi still clearly prefers Danish in casual settings.
To consider the season successful: Astralis needs to justify the decision to move on from their Danish roots. In the final 2025 season, Astralis reached 2nd place of PGL Astana and FISSURE Playground. They also reached the playoffs of IEM Chengdu. However, they crashed out in Stage 2 of the Budapest Major only winning 2 series. They need to reach 4 playoffs and/or get to Stage 3 of the Major, cementing their place as a top 10 team, minimum.
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G2
G2 has a single fluke trophy to their name with this 5-man roster. That’s better than most Tier 1 teams can say for themselves in the last 6 months. This organization stood its ground on a roster that does not really seem to have a chance to attain another trophy, but then again the first one did not seem possible either. I still have faith in sAw being one of the five best coaches in Counter-Strike as well as HeavyGod being a top 5 anchor in the game. Unfortunately, I would do just about anything to have a top 5 AWPer and top 5 aggressive rifler instead. G2 holds championship contender pieces, but the rest of the roster is not keeping up.
To consider the season successful: sAw needs to make peace with the fact that SunPayus can still be a lifelong friend while sitting on the bench for this roster. He’s painfully mediocre compared to a kl1m who looks to be a rising talent from G2’s academy team and is worth a shot. What G2 needs is a roster change to show the ambition that they are serious about winning Tier 1 Counter-Strike more than any particular result.
Aurora
Aurora has quickly become my least favorite team to talk about. They have their hands-tied by a Turkish scene which has failed to produce any notable up-and-coming IGLs while also fielding the worst IGL of any top 12 team. I would dare you to say you would take MAJ3R over any of the other IGLs of the teams I talk about in this article in a tournament if your life depended on the outcome. That being said, Aurora have had a swift fall from grace. Despite the core qualifying for 8 consecutive playoffs in 2025, they only managed to win one series vs The Mongolz in the non-consolation playoff brackets. One series win per eight playoff appearances feels almost difficult.
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To consider the season successful: Aurora have to keep up the facade that acquiring soulfly was not out of desperation. If they win at least 5 playoff series in S-Tier events or qualify for 2 Grand Finals then I would be able to say that their playoff nerves are behind them. To me, this would have to first come from a stylistic change, especially for their T-sides but at least this team was gifted the map pool buff of seeing Anubis return so it’s now or never to say this lineup shouldn’t be blown up. We all know XANTARES can speak English, after all.
Faze
This team is having an identity crisis. karrigan has no ability to rally the troops, frozen is having wavering form, and broky can’t hit a shot. Unfortunately, the Starladder Budapest run was the best and worst thing that could possibly happen to this team. After achieving the seemingly impossible and taking a map off of Vitality in the Grand Finals, it would never ever get better. This team has won a total of two (2)…TWO series since the beginning of 2026. They are averaging less than a single series win per tournament that they join. This is the most reprehensible state that anyone has ever seen FaZe Counter-Strike in. Even Eddie saw the state of this team and went back to his dayjob.
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To consider the season successful: Qualify for Stage 3 of the Major and do not fall out of the top 16 VRS positions. Yeah, it’s that dire for FaZe right now. They just have to hold on, win a handful of series to buy time for what should be a massive roster shuffle. This team is not even close to having a deep tournament run.
Natus Vincere
I was ready to give Navi a softball goal for the season, to steadily improve with makazze continuing to learn the do’s and don’ts of tier 1 CS. Two or three playoff wins would’ve sufficed for me. Then B1ad3 had to go and say they were trophy contenders in an interview with HLTV. Well now he did my job here for me, but he also shot way higher than I ever would have. To consider the season successful: Don’t make B1ad3 look stupid. Win something, as unlikely as that might be.
The Mongolz
Losing the best player that Mongolia has ever seen is going better than expected. cobrazera handled a Furia team that is struggling to regain its form. This Mongolz roster may actually give Asia something to believe in. To consider the season successful: Keep cobrazera above a 1.06 Rating to justify the benching of Senzu and qualify for the majority of playoffs of tournaments attended this season. A positive record versus all of the other teams I’ve listed in this article also feels like a minimum. There won’t be any hard feelings if Vitality and Mouz continue to stop The Mongolz at the upcoming tournaments they play, but punching into the top 5 is a reasonable goal.
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When it comes to the teams above: Vitality, Furia, Mouz, Falcons, and Spirit, you’ve already vaulted yourself into the esteemed although oftentimes unenviable position of needing to lift the trophy or the tournament has been considered a failure. That’s what each of them needs to be considered successful. As for PARIVISION, I would already consider this season a success as long as they don’t go 0-3 at the Major. Lifting an S-Tier trophy along with reaching another Grand Finals is more than anyone could’ve hoped for going into 2026 for Jame and his disciples.
