Following the opening stage of BLAST Bounty Season 2, the projected August Valve Regional Standings (VRS) have become much clearer. CS2 analyst Jesper “Udknud” Larsen published updated simulations that estimate where teams are most likely to finish after running 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. According to Larsen, the tournament has unfolded almost exactly as expected. Because of that, only the remaining LAN playoff matches can significantly change the rankings. Earlier unexpected results created uncertainty, but most of those scenarios have now disappeared.
Spirit are locked in at No. 1
The updated projections indicate that Spirit will almost certainly remain the world’s No. 1 team regardless of the BLAST Bounty playoff results.
Several other teams can still improve their position with a deep run:
- Falcons are expected to stay No. 2.
- 9z are projected to finish between 3rd and 4th.
- Vitality should remain in 4th-5th.
- NAVI are expected to occupy 5th-6th.
- MOUZ can finish anywhere from 3rd to 10th.
- The MongolZ still have a wide range of possible outcomes, from 3rd to 16th.
- FaZe can finish between 6th and 16th.
- Astralis still have a chance to climb as high as 10th but could also remain outside the top 20.
Larsen noted that his model includes prize pool points. Those points are currently absent from HLTV’s public ranking projection, making these simulations closer to the expected official August VRS.
FUT lose important ground
The defeat to 3DMAX dealt a major blow to FUT. The loss reduced the team’s chances of collecting valuable VRS points and weakened its position for future Tier 1 invitations.
Larsen addressed the topic on X after fans asked about FUT’s situation. He believes the team will probably miss the next ESL Pro League. However, he also expects FUT to remain in a good position for future Major invitations through other qualifying events.
He added that the defeat to 3DMAX affected FUT’s ranking much more than many people initially expected.
Several teams still have everything to play for
Although most of the August rankings now look stable, the BLAST Bounty playoffs remain extremely important. Teams such as MOUZ, The MongolZ, FaZe, Astralis, Liquid and 3DMAX can still gain several VRS positions by reaching the later stages of the tournament.
Those ranking gains could prove decisive. Valve’s VRS now determines invitations to many of Counter-Strike’s biggest events, meaning every playoff victory may influence a team’s schedule for the rest of the season.
