Seven weeks remain before the qualification window closes for the PGL Singapore Major, and the European race for a spot in the top 18 is starting to take shape. An updated prediction model from VRS analyst Udknud, refreshed on September 14, 2026, shows Spirit sitting comfortably in first place. However, the picture further down the standings is far less settled.
This update matters because it reflects real results from the past week. BetBoom locked in their Major spot through Fissure Playground 3, while Alliance surged upward on the back of a strong showing at the same event. Meanwhile, teams like BIG, FaZe, and GamerLegion slipped after disappointing runs, showing just how quickly fortunes can shift in this race.
How the Prediction Model Works
The numbers come from Udknud’s simulation, which ran 50,000 seasons, covering 54.5 million matches in total. The model projects outcomes all the way to November 2, giving a probability-based view of which teams are likely to qualify. As a result, the percentages update week to week as real tournament results feed back into the system.
Two extra data points, tracked by Udknud, make the model more useful for fans who want deeper context. The first shows how much a team’s qualification chances improved or declined over the past week. The second, known as the LAN win grind, measures how much of a team’s maximum possible LAN win rating by November 2 has already been banked, where the model expects that rating to land on average, and how many more LAN wins the team still needs to reach it.
Where the Top 18 Stands Right Now
At the top of the standings, Spirit, MOUZ, Falcons, Vitality, G2, and FUT all sit above 99.9 percent, making their qualification close to a formality. Aurora follows at 98.1 percent, with BetBoom at 97.3 percent and Natus Vincere at 95.6 percent rounding out a group that looks nearly secure as well.
The middle of the pack tells a different story. B8 holds 87.9 percent, Astralis sits at 84.7 percent, and Alliance, buoyed by last week’s jump, now stands at 82.0 percent. PARIVISION trails closely at 81.9 percent, while FaZe and Magic sit at 74.7 percent and 73.8 percent respectively, despite recent setbacks for FaZe.
The final safe spots are the most fragile. BIG holds 52.0 percent, Inner Circle sits at 51.7 percent, and HEROIC currently occupies the last qualifying position at 43.1 percent. Just below the cut line, HOTU and Nemiga are the closest challengers, with qualification chances of 36.5 percent and 36.0 percent. Therefore, any of these teams could realistically swap places with HEROIC in the coming weeks.
Why the Model’s Numbers Can Shift Quickly
Udknud explains that the LAN win grind metric helps clarify why some teams look higher or lower than fans might expect. If a team appears too low in the prediction, it may simply be because the model anticipates fewer LAN wins for that team than a fan would expect. In addition, fans who are confident their team will outperform the model’s expectations are justified in rating that team’s chances higher than the published number.
There is also a path back into the top 18 for teams currently projected outside it. A team with many anticipated LAN wins can still climb into a safe position if it avoids costly defeats along the way. Alternatively, it can benefit if teams currently above it fail to meet the model’s expectations. Both outcomes are likely to happen as the season progresses, which is why the standings will keep shifting before settling.
Why This Race Still Matters
With seven weeks left before the November 2 cutoff, the European race for the PGL Singapore Major remains far from decided. HEROIC currently holds the last safe slot, but HOTU and Nemiga are within striking distance and could overtake them with strong results at upcoming events. Meanwhile, teams like BIG and Inner Circle cannot afford further setbacks if they want to protect their positions in the top 18.
As more tournament results come in, Udknud’s model should show fewer swings, and teams will gradually lock in their spots. For now, though, every match carries extra weight, since even a single result can shift a team’s projected qualification chances significantly. Fans following the European scene should expect the standings to keep moving until only a handful of contested spots remain.
