The race for invites to the IEM Cologne 2026 Major is heating up, as a new VRS simulation update from analyst Finn (@MischiefCS2) highlights major shifts in the European standings following recent tournaments, including BC.Game and other ongoing events. According to Finn, the situation remains highly dynamic, with several recent results already reshaping the balance in the fight for qualification.
Sinners emerge as the biggest riser
One of the key takeaways from the simulation is the sharp rise of Sinners. The Czech squad has gained significant ground in the VRS rankings after recent performances and is now seriously pushing for a spot in the next stages of the Major. Their climb is among the most notable across all teams in the past few days.
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FaZe return to the picture — but remain on the edge
Another major development is FaZe re-entering the projected qualification zone.
FaZe teeter back into the predictions
After a shaky period, the team has climbed back into contention, but their position remains fragile — a single bad result could once again push them out of the Major race.
G2 and GamerLegion: corrected odds, same overall picture
Shortly after posting the simulation, Finn clarified that there was an error in the Stage 2 odds for G2 and GamerLegion.
G2 and GL odds are wrong for Stage 2… I selected the wrong cell there
Updated numbers:
- G2 — 77%
- GamerLegion — 37%
He also emphasized that this was purely a visualization mistake and does not change the broader trends shown in the simulation.
Context: everything still to play for
Finn also stressed that the race is far from decided:
Still a lot to play for in Barcelona
Upcoming tournaments could significantly reshape the standings, especially for teams in the so-called “gray zone,” where even a single match can determine qualification.
Important note: Bucharest does not count for Major VRS
In replies to the community, Finn confirmed:
- “Will the PGL Bucharest count for the major vrs too?”
- “no”
This means certain events, despite their visibility, will not impact Major qualification — adding another layer of complexity to the race.
Community reaction: questions, scenarios, and growing tension
The update quickly sparked discussion across the community.
- “Is it possible for BIG to get in Stage 2?”
- “What would FaZe’s chances be if they attend Bucharest over HLC?”
- “How much the HLC team list can change the odds?”
- “FaZe must miss BetBoom Team, G2, ENCE…”
Fans are actively trying to map out qualification scenarios, especially for teams hovering around the cutoff line. There is also strong demand for more regional data:
- “Americas update pleaseee”
- “Please do the Americas one…”
The bigger picture: chaos before the final stretch
The European VRS race is entering its most intense phase:
- Sinners — rapid rise
- FaZe — back in the race, but unstable
- G2, GamerLegion, Monte, BIG — stuck in the danger zone
- dozens of teams still mathematically alive
With several key tournaments ahead, the final list of Major participants remains wide open.
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Conclusion: every match now carries Major weight
Finn’s latest simulation reinforces one key idea — the 2026 Major race is one of the most competitive in CS2 history. The gap between qualification and elimination may now come down to a single match, a single round — or even a single veto decision. And that’s exactly what makes the final stretch of the season so intense.
